Water Quality Risk Assessment for the Laoguanhe River of China Using a Stochastic Simulation Method

Abstract

The Laoguanhe River is a major tributary of the Danjiang River, which is the source water for the Danjiangkou Reservoir (i.e., the source reservoir for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China). This study was intended to provide scientific decision support to help manage the water environment in the Laoguanhe River and maintain high water quality levels for the water diversion project. Risk assessment based on water quality simulation was undertaken in this research. The QUAL2Kw model was used to improve the simulations of the water quality in the Laoguanhe River under sparse data conditions. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used to improve flow inputs for QUAL2Kw. The model was used to calculate water quality risks under several scenarios based on a Markov stochastic process to reflect uncertainties. The simulation results indicated that water quality of the downstream sections of the Laoguanhe River could meet the basic requirements for exporting water to the Danjiangkou Reservoir.

Inexact Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Fractional Programming for Sustainable Management of Electric Power Systems

“…The LS model achieves the slightly lower percent (i.e. 0%, 0% and [5,6] % in periods 1, 2, and 3.) Similarly, the results under other levels ( = 0.05 and = 0.1) can be interpreted.…”

“…The IFCF-PSP model leads to a relatively higher percentage of natural gas power generation; in comparison, the LS model leads to relatively higher percentages of coal-fired electricity supplies. According to the solutions from IFCF-PSP model, the percent of electricity generated by natural gas facilities would be [5,6] %, [7,8] %, and [5,8] % in periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The LS model achieves the slightly lower percent (i.e.…”

“…Due to these complexities, inexact systems analysis techniques are desired to assist in developing long-term EPS management plans. There are many techniques to handle system uncertainties, such as interval parameter programming (IPP) [1][2][3], stochastic mathematical programming (SMP) [4][5][6][7], and fuzzy possibilistic programming (FPP) [8][9][10][11][12].…”

Safety Guarantee System of Drinking Water Source in Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Its Application in Huangjuedu Drinking Water Source Area

“…As an extension of previous efforts, the objective of this study is to develop a Three Gorges Reservoir area drinking water source security system for monitoring pollutant migration and diffusion in the area in order to provide support. By using the two-dimensional water quality monitoring model, based on FORTRAN language (The abbreviation of Formula Translation is the first high-level programming language designed for scientific, engineering problems or problems in business management that can be expressed with mathematical formulas) and TECPLOT visualization interface(One software with powerful data analysis and visual processing functions), considering that the model can visually present the spatial and temporal distribution of pollutants, a drinking water source security system in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is developed [2,14].…”

Robust Linear Programming and Its Application to Water and Environmental Decision-Making under Uncertainty

“…Previous research efforts have indeed improved our understanding of the applicable methods for dealing with various uncertainties in a water system [25][26][27][28][29]. Multiple types of uncertain information, including interval number, fuzzy set and probability distribution, can be translated into model parameters effectively through different mathematical techniques [30][31][32][33][34][35]. However, most of these efforts have limited practical values due to the limitation on providing reliable and robust managerial support under uncertainty.…”