Water resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply?

In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables.

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“…run-of-river facilities (Liersch et al, 2019). As of 2019, no pumped-storage facilities are in operation throughout SSA.…”

Section: A C C E P T E D Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

Falchetta

Gernaat

Hunt

et al. 2019

Journal of Cleaner Production

100

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“…Such declines could lead to a loss of useable area for floating rice production, enhanced pressure for the conversion of more natural wetland areas and declines in the extent of fish nurseries and rejuvenation of seasonal grasslands that provide fodder for domestic animals and wildlife (e.g. Liersch et al 2019). Conversely, some GCM groups project increases in peak flood extent, although significant changes are restricted to one, and this could enhance flood-related ecosystem service delivery.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

et al. 2021

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Modified water regimes due to climate change are likely to be a major cause of freshwater ecosystem alteration. General Circulation Model (GCM)-related uncertainty in environmental flows at 12 gauging stations in the Upper Niger Basin and flooding within the Inner Niger Delta is assessed using the Ecological Risk due to the Flow Alteration method and a hydrological model forced with projections from 12 GCM groups for RCP 4.5 in the 2050s and 2080s. Risk varies between GCM groups and stations. It increases into the future and is larger for changes in low flows compared to high flows. For the ensemble mean, a small minority of GCM groups projects no risk for high flows in the 2050s (low risk otherwise). This reverses for the 2080s. For low flows, no risk is limited to three stations in the 2050s and one station in the 2080s, the other experience either low or medium risk. There is greater consistency in the risk of change in flood extent, especially in the dry season (medium risk for all groups and the ensemble mean). Some (low or medium) risk of change in peak annual inundation is projected for most groups. Changing flood patterns have implications for wetland ecology and ecosystem services.

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“…Some studies have even suggested that a smart deployment of VRE on interconnected regional grids may help reduce future investment needs for additional hydropower in water-rich countries, thus lowering sustainability concerns around environmental impacts of hydropower plants [11•, 31, 32•, 33, 34] as well as lessening competition for water resources amidst the water-energy nexus [35]. This is an important finding given the various barriers and controversies that surround the potential development of some of Africa's major unexploited hydropower resources, such as population displacement, disputed water rights, cost overruns and long lead times [34].…”

Section: Generation-driven Flexibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Grid for all Seasons: Enhancing the Integration of Variable Solar and Wind Power in Electricity Systems Across Africa

Sterl

2021

Curr Sustainable Renewable Energy Rep

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Purpose of review This review paper assesses recent scientific findings around the integration of variable renewable electricity (VRE) sources, mostly solar PV and wind power, on power grids across Africa, in the context of expanding electricity access while ensuring low costs and reducing fossil fuel emissions. Recent findings In this context, significant research attention has been given to increased cross-border transmission infrastructure between African countries to harness the spatiotemporal complementarities between renewable electricity resources, as well as to storage options, such as battery storage and power-to-gas. Summary Much of the recent, model-based literature suggests that a combination of increased interconnections in and between Africa’s power pools, leveraging spatiotemporal complementarities between solar PV, wind and hydropower, as well as a large-scale deployment of storage options could help African countries meet their burgeoning power demand with largely decarbonized electricity supply.

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Water resources planning in the Upper Niger River basin: Are there gaps between water demand and supply?

Cited by 24 publications

References 34 publications

Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

A Grid for all Seasons: Enhancing the Integration of Variable Solar and Wind Power in Electricity Systems Across Africa

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