Water resources planning under climate and economic changes in Skiathos island, Aegean

Abstract

Small Aegean islands are facing complicated pressures of different natures. Their physically limited water resources are invoked to cover the increasing needs of the local population, combined with the seasonal water demand peaks due to tourists. This often leads to aquifers’ overexploitation and seawater intrusion, deteriorating the water quality. Water scarcity may also occur due to inadequate infrastructure, limited investments and human resources for proper management. This study uses the example of Skiathos island, which faces all the above challenges. The water supply network and the city's demand are simulated through WEAP software, in an attempt to address the major drivers for future water management. A long-term water demand forecast is performed under scenarios of climate change (based on ensemble means of RCP simulations), and water pricing (based on the recommendations of European legislation). Other pressures (i.e., operation of new hotels) and measures (i.e., desalinization unit, network and reservoir works) that were already considered by the local authorities, are discussed. Overall, the findings aim to sensitize and motivate local policymakers to construct databases, start monitoring, include more factors in the decision-making process, and avoid overexploitation for the sake of non-sustainable development norms.

Integrating Ensemble Weather Predictions in a Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modelling System for Fine-Resolution Flood Forecasting: The Case of Skala Bridge at Evrotas River, Greece

“…The need to enable the anticipation of impending heavy rainfall events and their potential impact on hydrological systems leading to potential flooding has long been recognized and researched [11]. The inherent uncertainties concerning meteorological phenomena that pass through flood models and forecasts have also long been researched [12,13], and continue to be a crucial research question [14], given the importance of accurate and timely forecasts [15], and the need for considering climate and weather uncertainties in integrated planning [16]. In that context, probabilistic forecasts have been proved particularly useful in enhancing the reliability of hydrologic-hydraulic forecasts [17].…”