Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Döll, Petra; Gosling, Simon N.; Liu, Junguo; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Oki, Taikan; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Kim, Hyungjun; Ward, Philip J.

doi:10.1038/ncomms15697

Cited by 378 publications

(238 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Previous studies on transboundary river basins identified clear evidence of the impacts of upstream water use to downstream water availability and water scarcity level (Al-Faraj and Scholz 2015, Munia et al 2016, Nepal et al 2014, Veldkamp et al 2017. It has already been found that 460 about 0.95-1.44 billion transboundary people are under stress because of local water use, while upstream water use increased the stress level by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people (Munia et al 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has already been recognized that upstream water use has considerable impact on downstream water scarcity by some regional and global studies (Munia et al 2016, Nepal et al 2014, Scott et al 2003, Veldkamp et al 2017). When population (or withdrawal) grows, downstream countries eventually become more reliant on the water available from 50 upstream parts of a basin in order to satisfy their needs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increase in water demand is among the main factors that are responsible for water scarcity in most of the transboundary river basins (Degefu et al 2016). Uncontrolled land and water development in upstream regions can escalate risk of water variability in the downstream region (Al-Faraj and Scholz 2015, Drieschova et al 2008, Veldkamp et al 2017). Concerns about water variability are already considered one of the most important issues for international co-operation and conflict concerning shared water basins (Beck et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

Munia¹,

Guillaume²,

Mirumachi³

et al. 2017

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Countries sharing river basins are often dependent upon water originating outside their boundaries; meaning that without that upstream water, water scarcity may occur, with flow-on implications for water use and management. We develop a formalisation of this concept using water stress and shortage as indicators of water scarcity, and including both persistent 15 and occasional scarcity. Dependency occurs if water from upstream is needed to avoid either persistent or occasional water scarcity. This can be diagnosed by comparing different types of water availability on which a sub-basin relies, starting with reliable local runoff (available even in a dry year), followed by less reliable local water (available in the wet year), reliable dry year inflows from possible upstream area, and finally less reliable wet year inflows from upstream. At the same time, possible upstream water withdrawals reduce available water downstream, influencing the latter two water availabilities. In this paper, 20we further present a typology describing how scarcity and dependency evolve in transboundary river basins, and use this typology for a global analysis of transboundary river basins at the scale of sub-basin areas (SBAs). Four groups of SBAs are identified that experience scarcity and dependency differently depending on their i) location in the basin, and ii) hydro-climate characteristics, specifically the level of reliable support provided by natural upstream inflows. Each group has its own set of transitions in scarcity and dependency category, driven by changes in local water demand and/or upstream withdrawals. Our 25 results show that almost 932 million people (33% of the total transboundary population) live in SBAs that are dependent on upstream water to avoid stress because of their own water use, while 464 million people (17% of the total transboundary population) live in SBAs dependent on upstream water to avoid possible shortage. The identification of groups and their transitions enables discussion of the pathways SBAs might take in future, potentially contributing to further refined analysis of inter and intrabasin hydro-political power relations and strategic planning of management practices in transboundary basins. 30

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

Munia¹,

Guillaume²,

Mirumachi³

et al. 2017

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Current LHMs also lack dynamic trade-offs among irrigation water supply, flooding control and hydropower production, water competitions between upstream and downstream users (Munia et al, 2016;Veldkamp et al, 2017), and deficit irrigation and rainwater harvest . These processes are increasingly important for regional hydrological model simulation.…”

Section: Incorporating Regional Water Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human–water interface in hydrological modelling: current status and future directions

Wada

Bierkens

Roo

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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221

181

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Abstract. Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of largescale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human-water interface in hydrological models.

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“…Water scarcity has become a worldwide problem and its 25 intensity has even increased due to climate change and human activities, e.g. unsustainable land management and water management Veldkamp et al, 2017). This turns to a major constraint to our socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Green and Blue Water: Understanding Interactions and Making Balance between Human and Nature

Mao

Liu

Feng

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Water resources assessment is crucial for human well-being and ecosystem's health. Assessments by considering both the blue and green water are of great significance as the green water plays a critical but often ignored role in the terrestrial ecosystem, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Many approaches have been developed for green and blue 10 water valuation, while few of them considers the interrelationship between them. This study proposed a new framework for green and blue water assessment by considering the interactions between them in an arid endorheic river basin where hydrological cycling is dramatically altered by human activities. Results show that even though the green water is the dominant water resources, the blue water is also critical. Most of the blue water are transformed to green water through physically and human induced processes to meet the water demand of ecosystems. Time and spatial variability of water 15 supply and consumption forms totally different blue and green water regimes in different ecosystems. We also found that human use an increasing share of water with the decrease of the water availability. The massive water use by human reduces the water use for natural ecosystems. This indicates that natural ecosystems will take a higher risk of freshwater use when the water use competition increases. This study provides crucial information to better understand the interactions between green and blue water by assessing water resources in an explicit way. It also provides crucial implications for water 20 management aiming to make the balance between humankind and nature.

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Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Cited by 378 publications

References 67 publications

How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

How downstream sub-basins depend on upstream inflows to avoid scarcity: typology and global analysis of transboundary rivers

Human–water interface in hydrological modelling: current status and future directions

Assessing Green and Blue Water: Understanding Interactions and Making Balance between Human and Nature

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