Water supply risk analysis of Panjiakou reservoir in Luanhe River basin of China and drought impacts under environmental change

Li, Jianzhu; Gao, Zhenxing; Guo, Yang; Zhang, Ting; Ren, Peizhen; Feng, Ping

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2748-2

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…e Mann-Kendall trend analysis method is selected to test the change points of monthly runoff series. It is found that from January to December, the change points appear around the year of 1979, which is consistent with the previous studies in this region [31]. e M-K method was used to test the change points of monthly runoff series.…”

Section: Copula Function Stochastic Simulation Methods Withsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Mixed Distribution Model. In this paper, the stochastic runoff time series generation method using mixed distribution is improved based on the copula function stochastic simulation method proposed by Borgomeo et al [3], and the parameter θ value of Clayton copula function of Panjiakou reservoir calculated by Li et al [31] is used to generate the stochastic series of monthly runoff by bootstrapping the observed monthly runoff data. en, the monthly marginal probability distribution before and after the change point of each month is calculated, and the before and after the change point distribution will be mixed by the mixed distribution model.…”

Section: Copula Function Stochastic Simulation Methods Withmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…e upper and lower tail correlation coefficients of Clayton copula function are 0 and 2 − 1/θ , respectively, so it is more suitable for describing hydrological variables with lower tail correlation, such as drought analysis. Among the three copula functions, Clayton copula function is the best for the stochastic simulation of the Panjiakou reservoir [31].…”

Section: Copula Function Stochastic Simulation Methods Withmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment

Cheng

Feng

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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This study investigates the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir in the Luanhe River basin of China during 1956–2016 under environmental change. Since the monthly runoff series during 1956–2016 is a time series with change points, it is necessary to find a new stochastic streamflow series generation approach to preserve the statistical characteristics of the original series and to refine the reliability of water supply risk analysis. This paper improves a known stochastic streamflow simulation method of previous research to better reflect the characteristics of series with change points. And this paper simulates the monthly runoff series with change point of Panjiakou reservoir during 1956–2016 by three different methods, including Thomas–Fiering model, copula function stochastic simulation method, and copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model. Among the three methods, the copula function stochastic simulation method with the mixed distribution model which is improved on the basis of copula function stochastic simulation method in this study performs best in simulating the observed monthly runoff series during 1956–2016, and the water supply risk indices including reliability (time-based and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability, drought risk index (DRI), and sustainability index (SUI) are evaluated for Panjiakou reservoir and analyzed by using the stochastic simulation results. By comparing with the previous studies, all indicators are between the corresponding results of 1956–1979 and 1980–2016 with stationary inflows; it can be seen that change point seriously affects the water supply risk of Panjiakou reservoir. These results make it easy to formulate water supply strategies and schemes in changing environment for water resources managers.

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Section: Copula Function Stochastic Simulation Methods Withsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Copula Function Stochastic Simulation Methods Withmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Copula Function Stochastic Simulation Methods Withmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment

Cheng

Feng

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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“…The Luanhe River Basin is between 115.2~119.4 • E and 39.2~43.4 • N and crosses the junction of semi-humid and semi-arid regions [41], covering an area of more than 45,000 km 2 that takes up nearly 20% of Hebei province.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Use and Climate Change Altered the Ecological Quality in the Luanhe River Basin

Zhang

Song

Fan

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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Monitoring and assessing ecological quality (EQ) can help to understand the status and dynamics of the local ecosystem. Moreover, land use and climate change increase uncertainty in the ecosystem. The Luanhe River Basin (LHRB) is critical to the ecological security of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. To support ecosystem protection in the LHRB, we evaluated the EQ from 2001 to 2020 based on the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) with the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Then, we introduced the coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen analysis, and Mann–Kendall test to quantify the variation and trend of the EQ. The results showed that the EQ in LHRB was relatively good, with 61.08% of the basin rated as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’. The spatial distribution of EQ was low in the north and high in the middle, with strong improvement in the north and serious degradation in the south. The average EQ ranged from 0.58 to 0.64, showing a significant increasing trend. Furthermore, we found that the expansion of construction land has caused degradation of the EQ, whereas climate change likely improved the EQ in the upper and middle reaches of the LHRB. The results could help in understanding the state and trend of the eco-environment in the LHRB and support decision-making in land-use management and climate change.

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“…Accordingly, this study proposes a dynamic optimization model to improve drought risk in the water supply system regarding the performance indicators of the water supply system including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. In general, drought risk measure assesses the characteristics of failure events and their impacts on water supply policies according to the basic parameters of system performance to investigate system behavior, taking into account potential adverse impacts such as imbalance between available water resources and demand (Zongxue et al, 1998;Li et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Drought Risk Using a Dynamic Optimization Framework in Regional Water Allocation Procedure With Different Streamflow Scenarios

Basirialmahjough²,

He³

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Recently, the water supply process has experienced serious challenges, because, with the intensification of drought, the imbalance between available water resources and demand for water in different sectors has led to increased system risk. Therefore, this study proposed an optimal dynamic framework under different scenarios aimed at improving the drought risk of the water supply system. In this sense, given the negative effects of drought on the water supply procedure, the degree of drought risk is analyzed and improved according to system performance parameters. After examining the developed model by initial data collected from a real case study of Hamoun wetland in Iran, the most sensitive parameters were included reliability and vulnerability, which, in this regard, the highest degree of drought risk is related to the agricultural and industrial sectors due to the acquisition of less reliability and greater vulnerability. In addition, given the final output, adaptation measures such as demand governance scheme and weight scenario analysis have been developed in order to investigate the drought risk of the system in more detail.

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Water supply risk analysis of Panjiakou reservoir in Luanhe River basin of China and drought impacts under environmental change

Cited by 14 publications

References 35 publications

Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment

Water Supply Risk Analysis Based on Runoff Sequence Simulation with Change Point under Changing Environment

Land Use and Climate Change Altered the Ecological Quality in the Luanhe River Basin

Investigation of Drought Risk Using a Dynamic Optimization Framework in Regional Water Allocation Procedure With Different Streamflow Scenarios

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