Waterspout Forecasting Method Over the Eastern Adriatic Using a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Model

Renko, Tanja; Ivušić, Sarah; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Šoljan, Vinko; Horvat, Igor

doi:10.1007/s00024-018-1833-x

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) based on the radiosonde measurement is considered (Renko et al ., 2018). The sea surface temperature was 27.5°C, whereas the 850 hPa temperature was 20.7°C, producing a difference of 6.8°C.…”

Section: Weather Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a waterspout at Zhuhai, China, on June 12, 2019

Chan

Tse

Lee

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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This paper reports on a waterspout presiding over the Pearl River Estuary near Zhuhai, China. It is observed mainly using the terminal Doppler weather radar in Hong Kong. A slanting radar reflectivity core and airflow circulating around was seen in the vertical cross-section across the mesoscale/microscale cyclone associated with the waterspout. The vertical wind profile associated with the cyclone was analysed and found to exhibit characteristics similar to those of a tornado reported in the region in a previous study. The primary characteristic of the waterspout was a circulating flow stronger at higher levels (approximately a few kilometres above ground) than at lower levels. In terms of nowcasting, the performance of a convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model (2 km horizontal resolution) was analysed. It was found to demonstrate reasonable simulation skill for the mesoscale/microscale cyclone, although the slanting feature was not well predicted. The results of this study can serve as a useful reference for similar studies of waterspouts/tornadoes worldwide. K E Y W O R D Snumerical simulation, waterspout, weather radar

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Section: Weather Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a waterspout at Zhuhai, China, on June 12, 2019

Chan

Tse

Lee

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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“…Several thermodynamic, kinematic and composite sounding-derived parameters were calculated from the most representative atmospheric vertical profile for each event. Moreover, we analysed the waterspout distribution in the Szilagyi Waterspout Nomogram (Szilagyi, 2009), which was developed in North America and has already been tested in some European seas, such as the Baltic and the central and eastern Mediterranean (Keul et al, 2009;Sioutas et al, 2013;Renko et al, 2018), but not the western Mediterranean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tornadic environments in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands based on ERA5 reanalysis

Rodríguez

Bech

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A dataset of 907 tornado and waterspout events recorded from 1980 to 2018 was built to study convective environments in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean). The events were grouped into different categories, distinguishing waterspouts and tornadoes that were stratified by intensity according to the Fujita (F) scale and the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. The analysis separated the northeast (NE) and southwest (SW) subareas in the region of study, which present different seasonal cycles. For each event, atmospheric profiles from the ERA5 reanalysis data were used to determine convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm-relative helicity (SRH), vertical wind-shear (WS), the Universal Tornadic Index (UTI), and the product of wind-shear and the square root of two times CAPE (WMAXSHEAR). Results showed that the NE events are mostly associated with higher CAPE and lower helicity and wind-shear than the SW events. Thus, a significant number of SW tornadoes are associated with high-shear, low-CAPE environments. Moreover, the low-shear, high-LCL tornado environment, which is common inland during warm-season, is more usual in the NE subarea. Composite parameters such as the UTI and WMAXSHEAR 06 are good discriminators between significant and weak tornado events, although WMAXSHEAR 06 presents some limitations for the SW events due to low CAPE and weak differences in the WS (0-6 km) between the (E)F1 and (E)F2+ events. This weakness was resolved by using the 0-3 km WS instead of the 0-6 km WS when calculating the WMAXSHEAR. A new threshold for WMAXSHEAR 03 is proposed (500 m 2 Ás −2) to distinguish between significant and non-significant tornado environments. Finally, the Szilagyi Waterspout Nomogram, originally developed for the Great Lakes of North America, was successfully tested in the forecasting of waterspout formation for the first time in the western Mediterranean area, although the technique should be adapted to correctly detect coolseason mid-latitude waterspouts.

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“…Similar to other studies such as those of Groenemeijer and van Delden [11] and Renko et al [7], proximity sounding has been analyzed to show the background dynamic and thermodynamic of the atmosphere for the occurrence of the tornado. e results in this paper are considered to be a useful reference not just for Hong Kong but also elsewhere in the world in further understanding the internal structure of a tornado and also demonstrate the power of very highresolution NWP models in predicting such events even in a real-time fashion.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…e dynamic/thermodynamic parameters are also calculated from the 00 UTC radiosonde ascent. Following Renko et al [7], the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) is about 10 (convective cloud depth of about 46,000 feet and the temperature di erence between the sea and 850 hPa level of about 7.6 degrees). It thus supports the occurrence of thunderstorm-related waterspout in Hong Kong.…”

Section: Observational Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observation and Real-Time Simulation of a Tornado Event in Hong Kong on 29 August 2018

Hon

Tse

Chan

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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An observational and simulation study of a tornado event in Hong Kong that occurred in the morning of 29 August 2018 is documented in this paper. Rotating airflow associated with the tornado is well captured by the Doppler velocity from a Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) in Hong Kong. The Doppler velocity patterns show the typical signature of a velocity couplet associated with a meso/microcyclone, and for most part of its lifetime, it captures clearly the evolution with time. Weather radar echoes of those thunderstorms inducing the current tornado, as well as the meso/microcyclone itself, are also successfully reproduced in a real-time simulation by a fine-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model initialised 3 hours earlier, albeit with a time lag of about 15 minutes when compared to the actual event. The model simulation displays some interesting features of the cyclone, including the vertical structure of horizontal and vertical velocities and cloud liquid water content, which are consistent with literature that accounts in other parts of the world. The vertical profile of maximum radial velocity associated with the velocity couplet also compares well between the actual weather radar observation and numerical simulation. The results in this paper could serve as an interesting reference for both meteorologists and wind engineers, also demonstrating the power of very high-resolution NWP in predicting such events in a real-time fashion.

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Waterspout Forecasting Method Over the Eastern Adriatic Using a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Model

Cited by 10 publications

References 41 publications

Analysis of a waterspout at Zhuhai, China, on June 12, 2019

Analysis of a waterspout at Zhuhai, China, on June 12, 2019

Tornadic environments in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands based on ERA5 reanalysis

Observation and Real-Time Simulation of a Tornado Event in Hong Kong on 29 August 2018

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