Forecasting oil production is crucially important in
oilfield management.
Currently, multifeature-based modeling methods are widely used, but
such modeling methods are not universally applicable due to the different
actual conditions of oilfields in different places. In this paper,
a time series forecasting method based on an integrated learning model
is proposed, which combines the advantages of linearity and nonlinearity
and is only concerned with the internal characteristics of the production
curve itself, without considering other factors. The method includes
processing the production history data using singular spectrum analysis,
training the autoregressive integrated moving average model and Prophet,
training the wavelet neural network, and forecasting oil production.
The method is validated using historical production data from the
J oilfield in China from 2011 to 2021, and compared with single models,
Arps model, and mainstream time series forecasting models. The results
show that in the early prediction, the difference in prediction error
between the integrated learning model and other models is not obvious,
but in the late prediction, the integrated model still predicts stably
and the other models compared with it will show more obvious fluctuations.
Therefore, the model in this article can make stable and accurate
predictions.