Waves of infection and waves of communication: the importance of sharing in the era of Covid-19

Mazzaferro, Sandro; Rocca, Anna Rachele; Bagordo, Domenico; Alfarone, Carmelo; Baldinelli, Guido; Boccia, Eligio; Bondatti, Franco; Casarci, Marta; Catucci, Angelo Emanuele; Chiappini, Maria Grazia; Cioffi, Anselmo; Cuzziol, Carlo; Paolis, Paolo De; Grotta, Barbara Della; Daniele, Nicola Di; Lullo, Luca Di; Pietro, Gabriele Di; Zazzo, Giacomo Di; Fazzari, Loredana; Feriozzi, Sandro; Ferrazzano, Mariateresa; Filippini, A; Fini, Riziero; Firmi, G; Flammini, Alessandro; Forte, Franco; Galliani, Marco; Gamberini, Marco; Gangeri, Fabio; Grandaliano, Giuseppe; Iamundo, Vanda; Lavini, Raffaella; Lonzi, Maurizio; Marinelli, R D; Marrocco, F.; Menè, Paolo; Miglio, L.; Morabito, Santo; Morgia, Augusto; Morosetti, Massimo; Muci, Maria Luisa; Nazzaro, Livia; Nusca, Carlo; Onorato, Leandro; Pace, Gabriella; Palumbo, Roberto; Pantano, L C; Polito, P M; Puliti, Marialaura; Rifici, Nunzio; Rizzi, Elsa; Rossi, Valeria; Sabry, Hassan; Scabbia, Luca; Serraiocco, Monica; Sfregola, Pietro; Simonelli, R; Treglia, A; Umbro, I.; Valentini, Walter

doi:10.1007/s40620-021-00974-7

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The reproduction rate R t is assigned values of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.5 corresponding to low, medium and high reproduction rates, in addition to a fourth scenario where R t alternates sinusoidally between 0.4 and 2 according to the relation where t represents the time in days, with a period of around 94 days to simulate the effect of the consecutive waves of the spread of the infection, as observed empirically [ 61 , 62 ]. The periodicity of the function cos( at + b ) is mathematically defined to be .…”

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy versus abundancy: Comparing vaccination schemes

Deeb

Jalloul

2022

PLoS ONE

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We introduce a novel compartmental model accounting for the effects of vaccine efficacy, deployment rates and timing of initiation of deployment. We simulate different scenarios and initial conditions, and we find that higher abundancy and rate of deployment of low efficacy vaccines lowers the cumulative number of deaths in comparison to slower deployment of high efficacy vaccines. We also forecast that, at the same daily deployment rate, the earlier introduction of vaccination schemes with lower efficacy would also lower the number of deaths with respect to a delayed introduction of high efficacy vaccines, which can however, still achieve lower numbers of infections and better herd immunity.

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Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy versus abundancy: Comparing vaccination schemes

Deeb

Jalloul

2022

PLoS ONE

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“…The deployment rate v is assigned hypothetical values varying between 0.1% of the susceptible population per day for slow vaccination rollout and 1.5% for the highest pace of vaccination rollout. The reproduction rate R t is assigned values of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.5 corresponding to low, medium and high reproduction rates, in addition to a fourth scenario where R t alternates sinusoidally between 0.4 and 2 according to the relation where t represents the time in days, with a period of around 94 days to simulate the effect of the consecutive waves of the spread of the infection, as observed empirically [57, 58].…”

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy versus abundancy: which vaccination schemes can better prohibit deaths and active infections?

Deeb

Jalloul

2021

Preprint

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In this paper, we introduce a general novel compartmental model accounting for the effects of vaccine efficacy, deployment rates and timing of initiation of deployment. It consists of compartments corresponding to susceptible, vaccinated susceptible, infectious, vaccinated infectious, active, and dead populations with various vaccine efficacies and vaccination deployment rates. Abstract We simulate different scenarios and initial conditions, and we find that the abundance and higher rate of deployment of low efficacy vaccines would lower the cumulative number of deaths in comparison to slower deployment of high efficacy vaccines. However, the latter can lower the number of active cases and achieve faster and higher herd immunity. We also forecast that, at the same daily deployment rate, the earlier introduction of vaccination schemes with lower efficacy would also lower the number of deaths with respect to a delayed introduction of high efficacy vaccines, which can however, still achieve lower numbers of infections and better herd immunity.

show abstract

“…vaccination rollout and 1.5% for the highest pace of vaccination rollout. The reproduction rate R t is assigned values of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.5 corresponding to low, medium and high reproduction rates, in addition to a fourth scenario where R t alternates sinusoidally between 0.4 and 2 according to the relation R t = 0.8 cos( t 15 ) + 1.2 where t represents the time in days, with a period of around 94 days to simulate the effect of the consecutive waves of the spread of the infection, as observed empirically [57,58].…”

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy versus abundancy: which vaccination schemes can better prohibit deaths and active infections?

Deeb,

Jalloul

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, we introduce a general novel compartmental model accounting for the effects of vaccine efficacy, deployment rates and timing of initiation of deployment. It consists of compartments corresponding to susceptible, vaccinated susceptible, infectious, vaccinated infectious, active, and dead populations with various vaccine efficacies and vaccination deployment rates.We simulate different scenarios and initial conditions, and we find that the abundance and higher rate of deployment of low efficacy vaccines would lower the cumulative number of deaths in comparison to slower deployment of high efficacy vaccines. However, the latter can lower the number of active cases and achieve faster and higher herd immunity. We also forecast that, at the same daily deployment rate, the earlier introduction of vaccination schemes with lower efficacy would also lower the number of deaths with respect to a delayed introduction of high efficacy vaccines, which can however, still achieve lower numbers of infections and better herd immunity.

show abstract

Waves of infection and waves of communication: the importance of sharing in the era of Covid-19

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Efficacy versus abundancy: Comparing vaccination schemes

Efficacy versus abundancy: Comparing vaccination schemes

Efficacy versus abundancy: which vaccination schemes can better prohibit deaths and active infections?

Efficacy versus abundancy: which vaccination schemes can better prohibit deaths and active infections?

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