We Have Eaten the Rivers: The Past, Present, and Unsustainable Future of Hydroelectricity in Vietnam

Abstract

Vietnam has one of the most intensively energy-exploited riverscapes in Asia with at least 720 hydropower facilities of various capacities currently in operation or in some stage of construction. These facilities represent about 26 GW of installed capacity. This degree of domestic exploitation is often overshadowed by the geopolitically contested manipulation of the waters of the international Mekong River. In contrast, the utilization of Vietnam’s hydropower resources has unfolded gradually and largely unremarked for more than half a century. This perspective argues that the harnessing of rivers and streams for electricity generation is the result of not only the country’s abundant hydrologic resources, but also its history, culture, and (geo)politics. The paper traces the processes that have produced this high level of river exploitation, its ambiguous history, and the uncertain future of hydropower in Vietnam in the context of sustainability. Further, the renewed interest in dam-building in recent years is part of a “theater of decarbonization” that masks the operation of powerful domestic and international lobbies with an interest in “heavy engineering” projects that will do little to meet the nation’s rapidly growing electricity needs but will likely incur detrimental ecological and sociological impacts. The paper ends by positing that rather than forging ahead with the construction of additional small hydropower facilities, a more ecologically and socially equitable policy could instead critically examine the sustainability of existing capabilities, resolve the factors limiting the development of other renewable sources of energy, and face the fundamental challenge of curbing energy use.

Problematic Power: A Perspective on the Role of Small Hydropower in Energy Transitions in Vietnam

“…By 2002, there were 34 HPFs (4143 MW) capable of generating ∼18.5 TWh of electricity each year (Table 2). 24 Twenty-seven were built between 1976 and 2002.…”

“…The proliferation of small HPFs during the past decade reflects the simple fact that fewer and fewer locations capable of supporting large facilities remain to be exploited. 24 Only four >100 MW HPFs have been completed since 2017. Despite their minimal contribution to the national energy grid, small facilities have continued to be constructed (Figure 2E), driven in part by subsidies associated with decarbonization, mostly in the form of low-cost loans and other aid from developed countries as part of climate pledges or private financing provided in exchange for carbon offsets.…”

“…As of 2022, the complete hydropower network in Vietnam totals 721 facilities with 26 102 MW of capacity (Table 2); this includes HPFs in operation, those under construction, and those for which the location is uncertain. 24 Only three of the HPFs (Son La, Hoa Binh, and Lai Chau) are truly megaprojects (>1000 MW), with 5520 MW of combined installed capacity (Table 1). These three facilities all have dams with large reservoirs on the Da River and comprise a full quarter of the nation's current operational hydropower capacity (Figure 3).…”

“…42 Thus, except for the EVN's optimistic projections, most analysts suggest that the nation's feasible hydropower potential is already fully exploited or will be in the very near future. 24 Nevertheless, Vietnam's Eighth Power Development Plan (PDP8) largely follows the EVN estimates, forecasting growth to ∼29 GW by 2030 and ∼36 GW by 2050. 43 The plan lists that the total capacity of all hydropower sources, including pumped storage, at 40 GW.…”

“…The web of 721 HPFs in operation or under construction equates to one per 459 km 2 of land or one per every 135 000 persons. 24 One should be skeptical of claims of large untapped potential, as well as its actual value to the national energy sector. The data indicate the limitations of any small hydropower facility to make a significant contribution to the nation's production of renewable energy.…”