Weak Markets, Strong Teachers: Recession at Career Start and Teacher Effectiveness

Abstract

for valuable comments and suggestions. Max Mandl provided excellent research assistance. Nagler gratefully acknowledges financial support by the DFG through SFB TR 15 and the Elite Network of Bavaria through Evidence-Based-Economics. He further thanks the Program on Education Policy and Governance at Harvard University for its hospitality while writing parts of this paper. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

The Compositional Effect of Rigorous Teacher Evaluation on Workforce Quality

“…Here, the existing literature does not offer much guidance. The only paper that we are aware of that considers the role of the economy on teachers transitions by quality studies effects on selection at entry, finding that teachers who enter during a recession are more effective on average (Nagler, Piopiunik, and West, 2015). It is difficult to extrapolate this finding to the exit decision, and unfortunately we do not have access to teacher quality measures for other Texas districts to offer a counterfactual.…”

How Local Economic Conditions Affect School Finances, Teacher Quality, and Student Achievement: Evidence from the Texas Shale Boom

“…Increased earnings of other household members (Scafidi et al, 2006) or sizable royalty payments (Brown et al, 2019) during boom times may also contribute to teachers leaving. The opposite has also been shown, as individuals entering teaching during a recession were found to be more effective in raising student test scores (Nagler et al, 2015). In Texas specifically, teacher quality has been linked to large positive effects on math and reading achievement (Rivkin et al, 2005).…”

Selecting or rewarding teachers? International evidence from primary schools

“…For instance, Bacolod (2007) shows that the U.S. experienced a marked decline in the quality of young women entering teaching between 1960 and 1990, contrasting with a simultaneous increase in the quality of those who became professionals. Nagler, Piopiunik and West (2015) obtain analogous results for more recent years by exploiting business cycle conditions at a teacher's start of his or her career as a source of exogenous variation in the outside options of potential teachers. Similarly, Falch et al (2009) measure teacher shortages in Norway as the share of teachers without certified credentials, finding a negative relationship between teacher shortages and regional unemployment rates in the period from 1981-2002; they explain this effect as a cause of the centralised and rigid pay system in the public sector that tends to reduce labour supply and lead to shortages of qualified personnel.…”