Weakening of the subpolar gyre as a key driver of North Atlantic seabird demography: a case study with Brünnich’s guillemots in Svalbard

Fluhr, Joachim W.; Strøm, Hallvard; Pradel, Roger; Duriez, Olivier; Beaugrand, Grégory; Descamps, Sébastien

doi:10.3354/meps11982

Cited by 21 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 69 publications

(83 reference statements)

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“…When convection is strong, the abundance of C. finmarchicus increases within the SPG , and here we show that these years also coincide with increased kittiwake breeding success (Figure 3). This supports previous suggestions that the dynamics of the SPG will impact seabirds in the NE Atlantic, although this inference is still qualitative (Descamps et al, 2013Fluhr et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…The marked 1990s reduction in the size of kittiwake and Brünnich's guillemots colonies have previously been linked to the dynamics of the subpolar gyre (SPG; Descamps et al, 2013Descamps et al, , 2017Fluhr et al, 2017), although only qualitatively. The SPG is a large body of cold and low-saline subarctic water, which circulates counterclockwise south of Greenland and Iceland (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Dynamics of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Introduces Predictability to the Breeding Success of Kittiwakes

2017

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Since the open-ocean subpolar Atlantic is amongst the most predictable regions in the world, our results hold promise for predicting the general production to seabird populations over a large geographical region adjacent to the northern North Atlantic and the Arctic Mediterranean. Colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in the North Atlantic have declined markedly since the mid-1990s, partly due to repeatedly failing breeding seasons. We show a close link between the breeding success of a kittiwake colony in the Faroe Islands and the subpolar gyre index. Successful breeding follows winters with an expanded subpolar gyre and, by inference, increased zooplankton abundances southwest of Iceland. The environmental conditions in the northwestern Atlantic during the non-breeding and pre-breeding seasons might therefore be important. Furthermore, the subpolar gyre dynamics might influence the local food abundance on the Faroe shelf during the breeding season.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Introduces Predictability to the Breeding Success of Kittiwakes

2017

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“…The negative trend in SPG-I during this study period follows from an event in 1995 when the NAO and SPG-I became uncoupled (Hátún et al, 2016), so it is conceivable that the generally favorable conditions for cormorants in Iceland stem from mild climate and improved feeding stocks, which in turn are associated with favorable oceanic conditions. A strong subpolar gyre (positive values) was associated with high adult survival in Brunnich's guillemot in Svalbard (Fluhr et al, 2017) but here we find the opposite effect in cormorants, where a weakened subpolar gyre is beneficial for food availability (fish stock indices) and concurrent metapopulation growth in great cormorants. We suggest that a weakened subpolar gyre in 1996-2015 (a period dominated by negative SPG-I values)…”

Section: The Role Of Climate Change and Its Possible Interaction Wicontrasting

confidence: 67%

Numbers and distribution of the Great Cormorant in Iceland: Limitation at the regional and metapopulation level

Gardarsson

Jónsson

2019

Ecology and Evolution

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We studied a metapopulation of great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) in Iceland, using complete aerial censuses of nests in 25 years during 1975–2015. Age composition was estimated in 1998–2014 by ground surveys in September and February. Brood size was estimated from aerial photographs in 2007–2015. Weather, food, breeding habitat, and density were considered as explanatory variables when examining numerical and distributional changes in the cormorant metapopulation. In 1975–1990 total nest numbers changed little, very low numbers about 1992 were followed by an annual increase of 3.5% in 1994–2015. Total nest numbers were positively correlated with estimates of spawning stocks of cod and saithe and inversely related to the subpolar gyre index (SPG‐I). During the increase in 1994–2015, average colony size at first increased and then declined. Habitat use also changed: the proportion of nests on small rocky islets (skerries) at first declined, from 69% to 44% in 1995–2003 and then increased again to about 58% in 2012–2014. Habitat changes were probably a response to changed patterns of human disturbance. Breeding density, as nests per km 2 sea <20 m deep, was rather uniform among five defined regions in 1975–1996. Thereafter, densities became much higher in two sheltered regions with kelp forests and in one mostly exposed region. A second exposed region remained low and in the third nest numbers declined markedly. Thus, carrying capacity was higher in sheltered regions where cormorant breeding had historically been depressed by human disturbance. Brood size varied little among regions but declined with the years from about 2.5 to 1.8. The proportion of juveniles in September (fecundity) declined in 1998–2015 from over 0.4 to 0.3 and was inversely correlated with year and nest numbers, if outlier years were excluded, suggesting resource limitation. Survival of juvenile cormorants in September–February was estimated at 0.471 ± 0.066 SE . Commercial fish stocks and climate indices were not correlated with the proportion of juveniles. Annual survival of adults (breeding and nonbreeding) was estimated from nest counts and age composition 1999–2014, as 0.850 ± 0.026 SE and showed no trend in 1998–2014. We conclude that the metapopulation of cormorants in Iceland was resource‐limited at two levels: fecundity at the regional and winter survival at the total level.

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“…The populations of the most typical taxa breeding or wintering within the southern North Sea and the western Wadden Sea fluctuate in response to resources, availability of breeding habitat, and are often strongly influenced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of climate change (e.g. Fluhr et al, 2017). Several North Sea populations are currently threatened or under severe ecological stress (e.g.…”

Section: Visible Connectors: Seabirds and Fishmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The species breeding on the Arctic tundra almost without exception rely on coastal resources during the nonbreeding season, concentrating in masses on the few places that offer extensive sea beds that, by tidal forcing, become available to them once or twice each day. Shorebirds have become a predominant secondary consumer on mudflats worldwide, in the process affecting the survival strategies of secondary producers and connecting mudflat systems that may be 1000s of kilometres apart (van Gils et al, 2016).…”

Section: Visible Intercontinental Connectors: Migratory Shorebirdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Sea coastal ecology: Future challenges

Philippart¹,

Gerkema²,

Veer³

2017

Journal of Sea Research

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Weakening of the subpolar gyre as a key driver of North Atlantic seabird demography: a case study with Brünnich’s guillemots in Svalbard

Cited by 21 publications

References 69 publications

The Dynamics of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Introduces Predictability to the Breeding Success of Kittiwakes

The Dynamics of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Introduces Predictability to the Breeding Success of Kittiwakes

Numbers and distribution of the Great Cormorant in Iceland: Limitation at the regional and metapopulation level

North Sea coastal ecology: Future challenges

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