Target Damage Effectiveness Evaluation (TDEE) is not only an important guarantee for commanders to make decision-making follow-up actions, effectively control the combat process and optimize the fire attack scheme to the greatest extent, but also an important way to detect target information search, target research and target selection. Damage probability calculation is one of the most important performance index of the TDEE. In this paper, a new damage probability calculation method for submunition to target is proposed based on intersection volume algorithm. Firstly, the intersection between submunition and a target is studied, and the calculation model of target damage probability is given; secondly, a damage probability calculation method was proposed based on intersection volume algorithm. Finally, the correctness of the proposed method is verified by the numerical examples.