Weapon Technology and Civilian Targeting in Conventional War: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

Why do armed forces target civilians during war? Extant theory generally interprets civilian targeting as motivated by an urge to dissuade collaboration with enemy forces. We expand on this idea by arguing that weapon technology is relevant to understanding why and where civilians are targeted. We presuppose that the danger for armed forces is highest when they are within the range of enemy fire. Civilian collaboration then poses a critical threat to combatants, not least because modern means of communication make it possible for civilians to transmit precise targeting information in real-time. An awareness of this risk, we argue, can lead armed actors to employ higher levels of violence against civilians when within the range of fire. We demonstrate our theory with geospatial data from the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. Our data comprises geospatial information at the 10x10km grid level for the first year of the conflict, including on the location of the front line on a weekly basis. We show that areas occupied by Russia that were in range of Ukrainian cannon artillery systems saw 7 times higher levels of civilian targeting. This effect holds up to a variety of measurement strategies, including a treat-control design (comparing areas narrowly within and narrowly beyond artillery range) and panel analyses using fixed effects and difference-in-difference estimation (exploiting the movement of the front line over time). The relationship is especially strong before the introduction of long-range rocket artillery and in areas with comprehensive mobile network coverage. We supplement our quantitative analyses with qualitative information on civilian collaboration and civilian targeting during the conflict. Our findings are of both theoretical and practical importance, enabling us to make better predictions about where and why one might expect civilians to be particularly vulnerable to victimization at the hands of armed actors.