Weather and Train Disruptions in Sweden, 2011–2019

Abstract

The impacts of adverse weather conditions on railway systems can lead to large delays and cancellations across the entire network. In this paper, we aim to understand the relationship between weather and train disruptions (i.e. cancellations and large delays) across the entire Swedish railway network for the years 2011-2019. Using railway operations data and snow depth, temperature, precipitation, and wind data aggregated on a weekly level, we use visual graphical analysis to understand this relationship. The results indicate that the disruption shares increase with higher amounts of snow and rainfall, and wind speeds. Results show that disruptions increase dramatically both at cold temperatures, with high snow depths, and at high wind speeds. High temperatures and precipitation levels also correlate with increased disruptions, but less dramatically. With projected increases in temperatures and precipitation due to climate change, and an increased frequency of storms, some of these relationships are expected to become more significant, while winter-related problems are likely to decrease. The results highlight the importance of increasing the resilience of railways to adverse weather conditions and the need for appropriate adaptation strategies.

Lateral Track Buckling in Sweden: Insights from Operators and Infrastructure Managers

“…Temperature High temperatures, heatwaves, zero-temperature crossings Thermal expansion in rail structures, lateral track buckling, line closure, lower operating speeds, inaccurate signaling and power wayside systems, reduction in outside working hours [2,5] Low temperatures, snow, ice, frost, freeze-thaw, permafrost degradation Clogged areas form trees, snow maintenance, tunnel icing, cracking/breakage of rails, damage to overhead lines and signal equipment [2,5] Precipitation Intensive rainfall/flooding Destruction of rail and bridge structures, bridge scour, flooding of underground rail transport systems, embankment collapse, landslips, erosion, slush flow avalanches, reduction in visibility and planned work, damage to drainage system, water damage to electronic equipment and supporting poles [6] Precipitation deficit Drought, drying of soil, shrinkage cracking, landslide, instability of soil, infrastructure slope failure, fires over trackside due to destruction of electrical equipment, settlement of rail structures [5,6] Wind Windstorms/gales Tree fall, reduction in visibility and planned work, structure instability, destruction of signal and electrical equipment, damage to pipelines [2,7] Sea level…”

“…Creep induces compressive forces in some parts of the track and tension in others [9]. It not only disrupts the track structure but also alters the SFT (7). This disruption reduces resistance to lateral loads [9] and increases the risk of buckling and rail breaks [29].…”

“…Extreme weather events such as high and low temperatures, excessive precipitation, windstorms, and rising water levels have a profound impact on the transportation system and can, in severe cases, cause infrastructure failures and damage to signal and electrical equipment. These disruptions can ultimately result in delays and even derailments [2,[4][5][6][7]. For a comprehensive understanding, Table 1 provides a summary of the adverse effects of extreme weather conditions on railway infrastructure.…”

“…Table 1. Examples of the physical relationships between weather phenomena, associated hazards, and their possible adverse effects on railway infrastructure [2,[4][5][6][7].…”

Railway Transport Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change at High Latitudes: A Review of Experience from Canada, Sweden and China

“…In Sweden, weather-related failures led to 50% of train delays in switches and crossings. Ochsner and Palmqvist (2022) have analysed about 100 million registered arrivals of both freight and passenger trains at stations where trains stop, for the period of 2011-2019, across the entire Swedish railway network. About 10 million of these were cancelled, and another one million was delayed by more than 60 minutes.…”