Weather phenomena and cloudiness accuracy assessment in TAF forecasts

Sládek, David

doi:10.1109/icmt52455.2021.9502819

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Visibility, expressed as a number with no room for ambiguity, differs from parameters like wind direction or cloud base height, where considerations of cloud amount or type introduce subjectivity. Evaluating meteorological phenomena adds another layer of difficulty and subjectivity, although methodologies for these parameters have been explored in other research papers (Sládek, 2021;Mahringer, 2008;Novotný et. al, 2021).…”

Section: Stations Data and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The performance of aviation forecasters as a consequence of major events

Sládek

2024

pesd

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Aviation forecasters, recognized for their consistent professionalism and rigorous training, typically exhibit unwavering focus on their responsibilities. Despite this, acknowledging the human element, this research explores the potential impact of external social and psychological influences on their forecasting accuracy. Utilizing standard Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) and Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METAR) observations, the study assesses forecast quality, emphasizing significant events like the COVID-19 pandemic, Nordic storm, tornado, and ice hockey world cup finals. Instances of decreased forecast accuracy during these events prompt an investigation into the role of social and psychological factors. This paper introduces a novel approach, employing variance from the long-term average, to gauge the influence of social and psychological factors on professional performance. Beyond highlighting the daily impacts of the social environment on highly routinized and professional activities, the study underscores an often-overlooked prospect. It posits that professional and technical assessment metrics can robustly indicate the severity of social and natural events. The research thus contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate interplay between meteorological expertise and external influences, emphasizing the potential for utilizing professional performance metrics as indicators of broader societal events.

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Section: Stations Data and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The performance of aviation forecasters as a consequence of major events

Sládek

2024

pesd

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“…Besides syntax errors, understanding weather forecast accuracy for a certain region in a certain time span means comparing what has been forecasted, i.e., relevant TAF data, versus what really happened corresponding to METAR data. The way the comparison is run is suggested by ICAO, leaving room to state the operationalization of the methodology under certain boundaries [5]. Despite the number of research contributions available in literature, either deterministic [6] or stochastic [7], forecasts accuracy analysis still presents uncertainties to be resolved [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance-based Analysis of Aerodrome Weather Forecasts

Simone

Gravio

Patriarca

2022

2022 New Trends in Civil Aviation (NTCA)

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Weather forecasting is a critical aspect for optimizing aerodrome operations. It allows ensuring on-ground and en-route safe and efficient air traffic management. Being a continuous and mandatory operation for aerodrome systems, it routinely produces large amounts of data. This paper suggests a customized performance-based analysis of weather forecasts accuracy in line with ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) standards. The analysis is instantiated into operational settings of a European Weather Service Provider (WSP), and its implications for operations of an Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), by means of exemplary data intelligence reports including accuracy indicators. The analysis is meant to support decision makers in managing aerodrome weather forecasting gaining knowledge from past operations.

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Analyses of European Terminal Aerodrome Weather Forecasts in 2022 and 2023

Sládek,

Chalupníková,

Schneidrová

et al. 2024

Aviation

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Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) are essential components of aviation meteorology, providing critical information for flight safety and operational decision-making. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of TAF for European airports during the years 2022 and 2023, leveraging Python functions accessible via a dedicated GitHub repository. The complexity inherent in TAF, characterized by diverse change groups, header formats, and regional variations, presents challenges for accurate interpretation. The analysis focuses on key parameters within TAF, including the count of corrected messages and the frequency and types of change groups. The count of corrected messages serves as a metric for evaluating the quality of service provided, while the examination of change group utilization reveals distinct patterns and tendencies specific to each airport. The findings underscore the significance of regional regulations, meteorologist decision-making, and adherence to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards in shaping TAF. The GitHub repository and associated Python functions presented in this study provide valuable resources for meteorologists, researchers, and aviation personnel to conduct in-depth analyses and derive insights from TAF. Ultimately, this study identifies local differences and inconsistencies in the publication of TAF, laying the groundwork for enhancing their consistency and uniformity.

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Weather phenomena and cloudiness accuracy assessment in TAF forecasts

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

The performance of aviation forecasters as a consequence of major events

The performance of aviation forecasters as a consequence of major events

Performance-based Analysis of Aerodrome Weather Forecasts

Analyses of European Terminal Aerodrome Weather Forecasts in 2022 and 2023

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