Weather related pedestrians' slip risks and predicting sidewalk slipperiness

Abstract

Wintertime slip injuries are a very common problem in Finland as well as in other countries where winter conditions are frequent. According to surveys, on average every third person in Finland slips each winter and more than 50,000 persons are injured needing medical attention. Slipping causes human suffering as well as significant financial costs due to medical expenses and sick leaves. On some of the most slippery days, the number of slipping injuries can be so high that the hospital emergency departments are crowded with patients requiring surgery. The severity of slipping injuries typically increases with age. In addition, the number of slips and slip related injuries are more common among women than men. Finland has set a goal to increase the share of sustainable transport modes, such as walking and cycling, in the future. The aim is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport and improve public health. Walking and cycling are to be the primary means of transport, especially for short distances in dense urban areas. In addition, the aim is to improve traffic safety and to develop walking and cycling infrastructure. This dissertation presents in which weather situations slips occur more than usual. In addition, the work presents a meteorological tool to help predicting weather conditions that cause pedestrian sidewalk slipperiness. Weather has a significant role in pedestrian’s wintertime slips and resulting injuries. In this dissertation, it has been investigated what are the weather situations that increase the risk of slipping and what is the spatio-temporal distribution of slips. Special attention has been given to situations with clearly more slips than usual, i.e. so called peak days of slipping injuries. The results show that snow and ice significantly increase the risk of slipping, and that most of the wintertime slips occur when the temperature is near zero degrees or slightly below it. This dissertation presents a numerical model predicting slipperiness from the pedestrian’s point of view. The model is developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The thesis presents the physical principles of the model and how the slipperiness classification is implemented. The model is a tool for meteorologists to supports the decision making when issuing warnings about slippery sidewalk conditions. In addition, the model benefits winter road maintenance personnel and also public with better sidewalk condition and issued warnings. Climate change will have a major impact on future winters, especially in the northern latitudes. The winter season is shortened and near zero temperatures are becoming more frequent also during mid-winter, meaning more slippery conditions during that period. It is expected that the slip period will become shorter but at the same time more intense.