Web browser as a tool for predicting the incidence of influenza

Abstract

Background. Infodemiology is focused on the analysis of web content to predict health phenomena. Google Trends (GT) is a free and publicly available service that permits analyses of searches performed with the Google web search engine. With GT it is possible to specify how often certain keywords are searched for.Objectives. The purpose of the study was to determine the feasibility of using data on the frequency of searches with the Google search engine to predict influenza incidence.Material and methods. Using the GT service, data on the frequency of searches for the Polish equivalents of "flu", "cold" and "fever" in the period of 2014-2016 in Poland were retrieved. Simultaneously, the epidemiological reports prepared by the National Institute of Public Health -National Institute of Hygiene (NIPH-NIH) were obtained for influenza incidence in the same period. Correlations between the variables were assessed using Spearman's rank-order correlation. Results.A statistically significant correlation was confirmed between the average daily search coefficients (ADSC) for all 3 keywords and weekly influenza incidence according to the NIPH-NIH data. The strongest correlation was found for the ADSC of the word "cold" (r = 0.77; p < 0.05). Conclusions.The frequency of searches implemented with the Google search engine may be used for predicting the incidence of influenza in the Polish population.

Trends in Perception of COVID-19 in Polish Internet

“…Tracking “digital footprints” of Internet users brings understanding of customers’ behavior and preferences on a large scale in the commercial and scientific sectors. Up to our knowledge there were no previous studies quantitatively linking the Internet activities and perception of infectious diseases in Poland (13, 14), except for our own studies (15, 16) and some straightforward attempts such as correlating the incidence of influenza with Google Trends (8). Moreover, during the first few weeks of COVID-19 pandemic a tremendous amount of studies appeared targeting English and Asian languages (17) with an underrepresentation of European countries.…”

“…In the previous epidemics (A/H1N1, SARS, Ebola) in the Internet era societies (such as Polish (6)) experienced quite similar phases of interest starting from fear, then moving to practical issues such as prevention and finishing with scapegoating (7). Recently media activities are being analysed worldwide to better understand perception and spread of diseases (8) as COVID-19 (9). Social media can serve as a valuable source of information as well as disinformation about the virus globally, fuelling panic and creating so-called infodemics (10), at unprecedented speed.…”

Trends in Perception of COVID-19 in Polish Internet

“…Up to our knowledge there were no previous studies quantitatively linking the Internet activities and perception of infectious diseases in Poland ( [13,14]), expect our own studies ( [15,16]) and some simple attempts as correlating incidence of influenza with Google Trends ( [8]). Moreover, during the first few weeks of COVID-19 pandemic there is a tremendous amount of studies targeting English and Asian languages [14] with an underrepresentation of European countries.…”

“…In the previous epidemics (A/H1N1, SARS, Ebola) in the Internet era societies (as Polish ( [6])) experienced quite similar phases of interest starting from fear, then moving to practical issues such as prevention and finishing with scapegoating ( [7]). Recently media activities are being analysed worldwide to better understand perception and spread of diseases ( [8]). The Internet is a good ground for propagation of views often contradicting the current state of medical knowledge [9].…”

Perception of “coronavirus” on the Polish Internet until arrival of SARS-CoV-2 in Poland

“…28 Na naszych oczach wyodrębnia się z połączenia epidemiologii, e-zdrowia i m-zdrowia 29 oraz nauk o informacji nowy dział badań, czyli infodemiologia, 30 zajmująca się analizą treści internetowych w kontekście zjawisk zdrowotnych. 31 Badanie zachowań społecznych polegające na analizie popularności słów kluczowych i tematów ma określone cele. Należy jeszcze raz podkreślić, że operujemy znaczeniami społecznymi, a nie medycznymi.…”