Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences

Li, Zongkun; Li, Wei; Ge, Wei

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-3355-2018

Cited by 57 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…However, large-scale hydropower development and construction has also brought controversies [3][4][5][6][7], such as the effects on the water environment and the changes to the river hydrological, including runoff, flood peak flow, water temperature [8]; effects on the ecological environment, such as migratory fish breeding [9], environmental flow [10], and ecological compensation [11][12][13]; effects on the social environment, such as immigration issues and land occupation issues [14]. In addition, the risk and the environmental impact of dam break are not negligible [15,16]. The traditional water resource index "water intake" can no longer truly measure the water consumption of hydropower stations and their positive and negative impacts on the environment, ecology, and society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cumulative Environmental Effects of Hydropower Stations Based on the Water Footprint Method—Yalong River Basin, China

Jia

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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The construction of hydropower stations is not without controversy as they have a certain degree of impact on the ecological environment. Moreover, the water footprint and its cumulative effects on the environment (The relationship between the degree of hydropower development and utilization in the basin and the environment) of the development and utilization of cascade hydropower stations are incompletely understood. In this paper, we calculate the evaporated water footprint (EWF, water evaporated from reservoirs) and the product water footprint of hydropower stations (PWF, water consumption per unit of electricity production), and the blue water scarcity (BWS, the ratio of the total blue water footprint to blue water availability) based on data from 19 selected hydropower stations in the Yalong River Basin, China. Results show that: (a) the EWFs in established, ongoing, proposed, and planning phases of 19 hydropower stations are 243, 123, 59, and 42 Mm 3 , respectively; (b) the PWF of 19 hydropower stations varies between 0.01 and 4.49 m 3 GJ −1 , and the average PWF is 1.20 m 3 GJ −1 . These values are quite small when compared with hydropower stations in other basins in the world, and the difference in PWF among different hydropower stations is mainly derived from energy efficiency factor; (c) all the BWS in the Yalong River Basin are below 100% (low blue water scarcity), in which the total blue water footprint is less than 20% of the natural flow, and environmental flow requirements are met. From the perspective of the water footprint method, the cumulative environmental effects of hydropower development and utilization in the Yalong River Basin will not affect the local environmental flow requirements.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cumulative Environmental Effects of Hydropower Stations Based on the Water Footprint Method—Yalong River Basin, China

Jia

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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“…Furthermore, there is no widely accepted definition of the social impact of dam breaks. Therefore, the social impact of other industries or natural disasters and the existing research results of scholars can provide a reference for the establishment of a social impact assessment index system for dam breaks in this paper [57][58][59].…”

Section: Evaluation Index Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is difficult to scientifically sort and analyze all of the factors that affect the social impact of a dam break due to their transient and complex behaviors. Therefore, this study relies on work by previous scholar's research [58] and concentrates on the social impact characteristics and dam break behavior [7,20,21,24,59]. A set of representative indicators can be obtained by analysis and sorting according to the principles of combining science, typicality, practicality, and qualitive and quantitative data.…”

Section: Loss Of Human Life and Property Damage To Residential And Bamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The classification and evaluation levels corresponding to each indicator can be determined through specific analysis of the characteristics of each indicator [58,59]. It is crucial to explain the judgement standards and connotations of the evaluation levels for each index comprehensively, so that experts can judge the evaluation levels correctly.…”

Section: Index Classification and Gradationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of Dam Break Social Impact Assessments Based on an Improved Variable Fuzzy Set Model

He¹,

Jaturapitakkul²,

Qin³

et al. 2020

Water

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In recent years attention has shifted from “dam safety” to “dam risk” due to the high loss characteristics of dam breaks. Despite this, there has been little research on social impact assessments. Variable fuzzy sets (VFSs) are a theoretical system for dealing with uncertainty that are used in many industries. However, the relative membership degree (RMD) calculations required for VFSs are complicated and data can be overlooked. Furthermore, the RMD is highly subjective when dealing with qualitative problems, which can seriously affect the accuracy of the results. This study introduces grey system theory (GST) which analyzes the RMD characteristics to improve traditional VFSs. A new method for calculating the social impact of a dam break is proposed based on the correlation between the core parameters of the two theories. The Liujiatai Reservoir is used as a test case and the new and traditional evaluation methods are compared. The results show that the proposed method has advantages when dealing with uncertainty that are consistent with the characteristics of the problems associated with dam break social impact assessments. Moreover, the evaluation results obtained using the proposed method are consistent with, or more accurate than, those obtained using the traditional method.

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“…Combined with the theory of disaster science [17], the main objects of dam breach can be divided into three categories: risk sources, risk pathways, and risk receptors. Therefore, indices of dam breach consequences can be identified from three categories based in a logical process of dam breach consequences, as shown in Figure 1 (1) Risk sources Severity of dam breach is mainly reflected on water depth, flow velocity, and rise rate of floods.…”

Section: Evaluation Index Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

Jiao

Sun

et al. 2019

Water

Self Cite

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Dam breach has catastrophic consequences for human lives and economy. In previous studies, empirical models are often, to a limited extent, due to the inadequacy of historical dam breach events. Physical models, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods, are not suitable for fast analysis of a large number of dams due to the complexities of many key parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for fast evaluation of potential consequences of dam breach. Eight main indices, i.e., capacity of reservoir (C R ), dam height (H D ), population at risk (P R ), economy at risk (E R ), understanding of dam breach (U B ), industry type (T I ), warning time (T W ), and building vulnerability (V B ), are selected to establish an evaluation index system. A catastrophe evaluation method is introduced to establish an evaluation model for potential consequences of dam breach based on the indices which are divided into five grades according to the relevant standards and guidelines. Validation of the method by twelve historical dam breach events shows a good accuracy. The method is applied to evaluate potential consequences of dam breach of Jiangang Reservoir in Henan Province, China. It is estimated that loss of life in the worst scenario is between that of Hengjiang Reservoir and that of Shimantan Reservoir dam breach, of which fatalities are 941 and 2717, respectively, showing that risk management measures should be taken to reduce the risk of potential loss of life.August 2018. Consequently, the risk consequences of dam breach have always attracted the attention of researchers.Originally, empirical models, which are based on historical events, were established to evaluate consequences of dam breach. Brown and Graham (1988) provided a conceptual model of variables influencing the LOL from dam failure and a method for predicting LOL based on the size of the population at risk (P R ) from failure and the amount of warning time (T W ) available for that population [7]. DeKay and McClelland (1993) proposed an expression for LOL in terms of warning time (T W ) and population at risk (P R ). The forcefulness of the floods was derived from the historical records of dam breach and flash flood cases via logistic regression [8]. These studies are often, to a limited extent, based on empirical data of historical flood events, most of which are of low availability, resulting in low accuracy in most applications.Thereafter, multiple physical models were established, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods. Assaf and Hartford (2002) developed a virtual reality approach (BC Hydro's Life Safety Model (LSM)) to deal with the problems of failure consequence analysis and emergency planning that are not amenable to resolution through existing analysis techniques, which is undergoing continued development [9]. Aboelata and Bowles (2008) demonstrated the deterministic uncertainty modes of calculation model of LOL named LIFESim, which was sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Australian National...

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Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences

Cited by 57 publications

References 24 publications

Cumulative Environmental Effects of Hydropower Stations Based on the Water Footprint Method—Yalong River Basin, China

Cumulative Environmental Effects of Hydropower Stations Based on the Water Footprint Method—Yalong River Basin, China

Evaluation of Dam Break Social Impact Assessments Based on an Improved Variable Fuzzy Set Model

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

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