Weight Loss Prediction after Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery

Abstract

Metabolic/bariatric surgery is currently the most effective measure to treat morbid obesity and obesity-related comorbidities such as type 2 diabetes. It has proven effective not only in terms of short-term weight loss, but also in maintaining the lower body weight for several decades. Such weight loss improves patient quality of life and extends life expectancy. It is crucial for patients to understand the likely results of a given bariatric procedure so that they can make an informed decision about whether to undergo surgery. The amount of weight loss after metabolic/bariatric surgery is usually the most important outcome of interest to patients considering surgical treatment. It is also the most common primary endpoint for healthcare providers. Patients undergoing surgery want tangible and realistic expectations about how much weight they could lose after surgery, and healthcare professionals need to determine at each follow-up visit after surgery whether patients are on track to reach their weight loss target so they can provide timely intervention to patients with insufficient weight loss or weight regain.Weight loss after metabolic/bariatric surgery is influenced by many clinical variables, including initial body mass index, age, gender, ethnicity, and type of surgery. A well-validated chronological weight loss prediction model would enable patient-centered counseling and goal setting. This review summarizes and compares several publicly available prediction models.

Enhanced Patient Portal Engagement Associated with Improved Weight Loss Outcomes in Post-Bariatric Surgery Patients

“…This finding aligns with prior studies, which indicated that weight changes during the early postoperative period are predictive of long-term weight loss success. [32][33][34] Silveria et al demonstrated that patients achieving less than 5% total body weight reduction at 1 month and 10% at 3 months following RYGB are associated with suboptimal weight loss at 1 year. [33] Manning et al found that weight loss velocity between 3 to 6 months is associated with maximal weight loss percentage.…”

Eating disorders and emotional dysregulation are associated with insufficient weight loss after bariatric surgery: a 1-year observational follow-up study

“…Excess preoperative BMI is also considered one of the most robust negative predictors of poor weight outcome [28][29][30]. In fact, subjects with a higher initial BMI end up having a higher BMI after the intervention despite losing more kilograms than those with a lower initial BMI [31]. In addition, in the past, women were found to experience greater post-surgical weight loss compared with men, whereas recent results regarding the predictive value of sex, including ours, disprove this finding [6].…”

Obesity surgery and neural correlates of human eating behaviour: A systematic review of functional MRI studies

“…Furthermore, there is heterogeneity in both the initial weight loss responses to bariatric surgery and risk of long-term weight regain. This may be contributed to by: (i) demographic factors including age, ethnicity, sex and obesity severity at baseline, (ii) presence of genetic variants especially in leptin-melanocortin pathway ( Campos et al, 2022 ), (iii) pre-surgical presence of co-morbid disordered eating or other psychopathology, such as binge eating disorder, emotional eating, ‘food addiction’, impulsivity, (iv) persistence/improvement of disordered eating after surgery, which may in turn also depend on the presence and nature of psychological support before and around surgery, (v) the type of surgery, and (vi) development of surgical complications ( Ivezaj et al, 2017 , Athanasiadis et al, 2021 , Kops et al, 2021 , Cohen and Petry, 2023 , Park, 2023 ).…”