Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime

Thomas, Christopher

doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102090

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2024

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Cited by 5 publications

References 104 publications

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Walking through the abstract[ed] city and co-creating urban space

Belkouri,

Laing

2024

Applied Mobilities

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Walking through the abstract[ed] city and co-creating urban space

Belkouri,

Laing

2024

Applied Mobilities

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Testing Routine Activity Theory: Behavioural Pathways Linking Temperature to Crime

Thomas,

Jeong,

Wolff

2024

The British Journal of Criminology

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This study examines direct observations of outdoor routine activities to investigate the pathways through which temperatures shape crime. Daily administrative records of crime, weather and outdoor activity were assembled from 2015 to 2019 in New York City. Mediation analysis (with bootstrapped standard errors) reveals that alterations in routine activities account for a statistically significant, yet modest, proportion of temperature’s relationship with homicides, shootings, assaults, larceny and public consumption violations. The comparable mediation effects across violent and nonviolent crimes support routine activity theory as an explanatory framework for understanding temperature’s impact on crime. The measures introduced here offer a novel approach for testing the theory and suggest other potential applications.

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Examining Homicides, Victims, Socioeconomic Context, and Weather Conditions in Mexico Through Spatio-Temporal Dimensions

Trejo,

Carrillo-Brenes,

Vilches-Blázquez

et al. 2024

Crime & Delinquency

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Mexico has steadily increased homicide rates over the past few decades. To better understand this phenomenon, we examine homicides, victims, socioeconomic context, and weather conditions by focusing on two critical dimensions of crimes: space and time. We implement diverse regression models considering spatial (Geographically Weighted Regression) and spatio-temporal (Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression) perspectives. These models are compared to general linear regression models (Ordinary Least Squares Regression, Generalized Least Squares, and Weighted Least Squares). Our findings highlight the importance of specific socioeconomic factors (e.g., educational backwardness, food insecurity, or poor-quality housing) and weather conditions in accounting for differences in homicides and victims. Furthermore, our experiments demonstrate that spatio-temporal models provide a better fit compared to general regression models. Our results provide valuable insights into the issue of homicides in Mexico. This work can help perform evidence-based interventions and policy-making at national and state levels. The outcomes emphasize the necessity of addressing socioeconomic disparities and considering weather conditions when tackling homicide issues in Mexico.

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Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime

Cited by 5 publications

References 104 publications

Walking through the abstract[ed] city and co-creating urban space

Walking through the abstract[ed] city and co-creating urban space

Testing Routine Activity Theory: Behavioural Pathways Linking Temperature to Crime

Examining Homicides, Victims, Socioeconomic Context, and Weather Conditions in Mexico Through Spatio-Temporal Dimensions

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