Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic <scp>CGE</scp> Model

Ünal, Gözde; Karapınar, Barış; Tanaka, Tetsuji

doi:10.1111/1477-9552.12229

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…First-generation biofuel production limits arable land space, which could affect food markets. Furthermore, climate change induces extreme weather and destabilizes agricultural productivity and therefore market prices [1]. For example, a poor wheat harvest occurred due to extreme drought in Australia and Ukraine in 2007, which increased the global wheat price with a low level of global inventory, export restrictions, and financial speculative activities [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Import Dependency and National Food Security: A Price Transmission Analysis for the Wheat Sector

Luo

Tanaka

2021

Foods

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Agricultural trade liberalization and protecting domestic markets encompass conflicting policy goals. Even though after the food crisis in 2008, national governments of food-deficit nations aimed at reducing food supply dependency on external markets, no research has assessed the impacts of food import reliance on price or price volatility transmissions to local markets. We constructed a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to examine whether wheat import dependency could make a country vulnerable to overseas shocks by analyzing the inter-relationships between the international wheat price and retail wheat flour prices in 10 net importing countries over the sample period from January 2005 to December 2019. It was found that retail price volatility in each region was positively correlated with international price volatility for most of the period concerned. We also discovered that external dependency could significantly protect the domestic market from the global one, implying that lowering wheat dependency on foreign markets improves “stability” and “availability” of food security without sacrificing “utilization”, but it may aggravate “access”.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food Import Dependency and National Food Security: A Price Transmission Analysis for the Wheat Sector

Luo

Tanaka

2021

Foods

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“…We analyze countries’ trade-related risk exposure to short-term wheat supply shocks by adapting a static and stochastic world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We run simulations by imposing productivity shocks on wheat in line with [ 26 , 31 ]. Employing the CGE model with Monte Carlo draws produces a range of household consumption outputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-Term Implications of Climate Shocks on Wheat-Based Nutrient Flows: A Global “Nutrition at Risk” Analysis through a Stochastic CGE Model

Tanaka

Geyik

Karapınar

2021

Foods

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Food security analyses of international trade largely overlook the importance of substantial heterogeneity and complexity of nutrient content in food products. This paper quantifies the extent to which wheat-based nutrient supplies, including energy, protein, iron, zinc, and magnesium, are exposed to the risks of realistic productivity and trade shocks. By employing a static and stochastic world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we find that productivity shocks may result in losses in households’ nutrient consumption of up to 18% for protein, 33.1% for zinc, and 37.4% for magnesium. Significant losses are observed in countries mostly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. Since the main centers of wheat exports have recently been shifting to former Soviet Union countries, we also simulated the nutritional risks of export restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which have resorted to this policy instrument in recent years. We find that partial export restrictions increase the probability of nutrient shocks by five times or more in most countries that we studied. Increased nutrient deficiencies have a range of public health implications in the affected countries, which could be mitigated and/or avoided by adjusting production and trade policies and by targeting high nutritional risk groups, such as women and children. Since the potential implications of supply shocks are diffused across countries through international trade, the stricter regulation of export restrictions to enhance the predictably and reliability of global food supplies is also needed.

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“…As we all know, shipping trade will promote the development of bilateral economic trade, and economic development will, in turn, promote shipping trade, thus ushering in new vitality in the construction of ASEAN maritime connectivity, and accelerating the construction of maritime connectivity has become a priority area and key direction for economic and trade cooperation between the two sides [5]. e goal of developing countries is to achieve trade liberalization by reducing tariffs and increasing trade openness [6]. e high frequency of international trade activities also brings some negative impacts such as the decline in government revenue from trade taxes [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Industry Shifts and Trade Restructuring in ASEAN Based on Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Models

2021

Complexity

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This paper provides an in-depth study and analysis of the quantitative relationship between ASEAN industry transfer and nuclear trade restructuring through the multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and categorizes the ten major projects and 57 subprojects covered by the ASEAN Information Port project investment into construction, information technology, and telecommunications, according to the key directions of investment. We design and simulate the changes in production activities, trade activities, and the balance of payments behaviour of the national economy affected by the project’s investment under 10 types of investment amount scenarios and prepare the corresponding social accounting matrix (SAM). Increased trade openness increases external risks and instability of the economy and fiscal revenues. At the same time, it creates other potential problems for the country such as environmental pollution and leading to unfair competition. Under free trade conditions, some manufacturers may choose to produce inputs that are not environmentally friendly to reduce costs, thereby harming the environment. For infant industries, if the government does not provide them with short-term protection or supportive policies, these new or developing infant industries may not have strong international competitiveness and may be vulnerable to the attacks of mature industries in the world. Therefore, based on the study of the influence of tax policy on trade openness, this paper examines the impact of changes in trade openness on a country’s economic environment and takes tax revenue as an example to conduct an empirical analysis and improve the factors that need to be considered when adjusting tax policy.

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Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Cited by 9 publications

References 22 publications

Food Import Dependency and National Food Security: A Price Transmission Analysis for the Wheat Sector

Food Import Dependency and National Food Security: A Price Transmission Analysis for the Wheat Sector

Short-Term Implications of Climate Shocks on Wheat-Based Nutrient Flows: A Global “Nutrition at Risk” Analysis through a Stochastic CGE Model

A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Industry Shifts and Trade Restructuring in ASEAN Based on Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Models

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