Welfare effects of weather variability: Multi-country evidence from Africa south of the Sahara

Abstract

Climate change and weather variability pose serious threats to food and nutrition security as well as ecosystems, especially when livelihoods depend heavily on natural resources. This study examines the effect of weather variability (shock) occurring up to three planting and growing season prior on per capita monthly household expenditure in rural Tanzania, Uganda, and Ghana. The analyses combine monthly temperature (1950–2013) and precipitation (1981–2013) data with data from several rounds of household surveys conducted between 1998 and 2013. Substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity is documented in the incidence of shocks, with effects dependent on both the study and lag period considered. Analysis of short panel data shows the cumulative effect of above-average precipitation on expenditure to be negative in Uganda -while positive in Tanzania-, but the relationship does not persist when pooling survey data spanning over a decade. The evidence from pooled data suggests a positive association between above-average temperature (heat wave) and expenditure in (historically cooler) Uganda, with the opposite effect observed in (the relatively warmer) Tanzania. For Ghana, the association between heat wave and expenditure is positive. There is no evidence of heterogeneous effects along several dimensions, except by agro-ecological condition. Further research into the effects of shocks on more direct outcomes–such as agricultural practices, yields, and dietary intake–is therefore recommended to shed light on possible impact pathways and appropriate localized adaptation strategies.

Re-examining the effects of drought on intimate-partner violence

“…For example, in many contexts women farm different crops with different inputs than men [4][5][6]. And women's welfare is more affected by weather variability [7,8] and droughts [9], especially in arid and semi-arid regions [10,11]. Given this robust body of research on gender specific climate impacts, some suspect a further linkage between women's vulnerability to IPV and climate shocks, specifically drought.…”

The heat never bothered me anyway: Gender‐specific response of agricultural labor to climatic shocks in Tanzania

“…A large body of empirical research examines the effects of weather shocks in developing regions on outcomes such as agricultural production, productivity, technology adoption, migration, and household consumption expenditure (Asfaw & Maggio, 2018;Haile et al, 2018;Kubik & Maurel, 2016;Letta et al, 2018). An important lesson that has emerged from this research is the existence of gender differences in vulnerability and responsiveness to climatic shocks (Bryan et al, 2017;Goh, 2012;Kristjanson et al, 2017).…”

Climate change and agriculture in Burkina Faso

“…Agriculture in SSA, which is predominantly rain-fed, is highly vulnerable to climate fluctuations and droughts (Abdulai, 2018;Adhikari et al, 2015;Barrios et al, 2008;Cooper et al, 2008;Haile et al, 2018;Kahsay & Hansen, 2016;Lokonon et al, 2019;Muchuru & Nhamo, 2019;Müller, 2013;Muller et al, 2011;Pironon et al, 2019;Rippke et al, 2016;Schlenker & Lobell, 2010;Sidibé et al, 2018;Sonwa et al, 2017;Webersik & Wilson, 2009). Webersik and Wilson (2009) put that "African economies are closely linked to natural resources and rely heavily on agriculture, largely rain fed […].…”