Wet-bulb Temperature and Sea-level Rise in the United Arab Emirates – Planning Responses

Abstract

Increased heat stress and sea-level rise, associated with climate change could threaten the viability of some cities by the latter part of this century. This paper reviews urban development patterns in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, and concludes these cities are highly vulnerable to elevated wet-bulb temperatures and sea level rise. This is predominantly due to the focus of development along the Gulf coastline, where these issues are concentrated. In response, this paper ventures regional planning responses to adapt to these threats through decentralising populations to inland areas.

Cascading climate risks and options for resilience and adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

“…At the same time, regeneration should be used to sensitively shift infrastructure and residential areas away from coastal zones that are threatened by sea-level rise and rising wet-bulb temperatures. Bolleter et al (2021) make a strong case for this regarding urban areas in the UAE. In exposed coastal areas, incentives for people to move inland over a longer period of time will be cheaper and less destabilizing than sudden mass relocation.…”

“…As Figure 13 shows, the wet-bulb temperature has come close to this in several locations in the Arabian Gulf including Dhahran, Ras Al Khaimah and Muscat. Bolleter et al (2021) explain how this will be worsened by sea-level rise and the concentration of buildings in areas of the UAE coastline. Pal and Eltahir (2016) argue that this could severely affect life in the region, including the international pilgrimages (Hajj) to Mecca.…”

Collapse, social tipping dynamics, and framing climate change

“… Pal and Eltahir, 2016 ). Civilization destabilizing risks of a + 4°C world include some densely populated regions becoming uninhabitable due to sea level rise or extreme heat ( Bolleter et al, 2021 ; Li et al, 2020 ; Hauer et al, 2020 ) and synchronous crop failures leading to global food shortages ( Tigchelaar et al, 2018 ). In his book, Our Final Warning , Lynas (2020) sums up this grim picture: “With four degrees of heating, massive shocks to society will be taking place, threatening or even destroying modern industrial civilization because of mass starvation, flooding, and the loss of large areas of the tropics and sub-tropics to extreme heat and drought.”…”