What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu Findings suggest that some results in the literature are specific for non-ferrous and precious metals and do not necessarily carry over to other metals like steel alloys, electrical metals, light metals, steel or iron ore. However, other results in the literature can be confirmed by the analysis of this comprehensive data set. Terms of use: Documents in

Trends and cycles in historical gold and silver prices

“…Moreover, using BP filter, they find that long-run cycles (often called super-cycles) last for approximately twenty seven years, but appear to be increasing in periodicity over the 20th century, whereas shorter-run cycles last for approximately four years but appear to be decreasing in periodicity. Rossen (2014) explores the dynamics (co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends) of monthly twenty metal prices including gold and silver during January 1910 and December 2011. Results based on the asymmetric band-pass (BP) filter show that price cycles are asymmetric; the number of cycles varies significantly depending on the specific metal under consideration, the majority of the metal price series can be characterized by four super cycles consistent with previous studies.…”

Comparing mineral and fossil surplus costs of renewable and non-renewable electricity production

“…Prices reflect market and geopolitical conditions and policy, thus other than resource scarcity, at a certain moment in time. There can be significant differences between real prices and long-run trend prices (Cuddington and Nülle 2014;Rossen 2015;Tilton and Lagos 2007). Yaksic and Tilton (2009) argue that long-run trend prices offer the most useful insights regarding mineral depletion, and Tilton and Lagos (2007) state that the long-run future equilibrium price can be assumed to converge toward production cost all other things being equal.…”

“…For this reason, the correlation between SCPs and long-run trend prices was analysed as well (see Electronic Supplementary Material). According to Rossen (2015), the long-run price trend lasts longer than 70 years so average prices for a period larger than 70 years were used, whenever available. The log-linear relationship between surplus cost potential and the long-run trend price of a metal or mineral resource has an explained variance of 92% and an intercept of −0.50.…”

Study on the development of nonferrous metal futures market

“…Clinton Watkins, Michael Mc Aleer through the analysis of Aluminum Alloy, aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc 3 month futures contract data, the risk premium hypothesis and the cost of the standard model of the theoretical model, the results of the study show that, if the spot price, futures price, interest rate and stock price variables including stochastic trend, can estimate the long-term version of general model in a cointegration framework [6]. Rossen Athrough the study of dynamic monthly metal prices in the past 100 years, the statistical analysis method of CO movement, the price cycle and the long-term trend, and the results were compared with the results in the literature, the results show that some results in the literature is specific for non-ferrous metals and precious metals, not necessarily transfer to other metals such as steel alloy, metal electrical, light metal, steel or iron ore [7].…”