What are the Consequences of the AWG-Projections for the Adequacy of Social Security Pensions?

Raitano, Michele; Desmet, Raphael; Verschueren, Frédéric; Cozzolino, Maria; Dekkers, Gijs; Steiner, Viktor; Tanda, Paola; Hofmann, Dirk; Tedeschi, Simone; Buslei, Hermann; Geyer, Johannes

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2033662

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…These contributions have taken a variety of approaches. Thus, at an academic level, Grech (2015a) presents a classification of studies according to several criteria and distinguishes between cross country studies (Atkinson, Bourguignon, O'Donoghue, Sutherland, & Utili, 2002;Dekkers et al, 2009;Dusek & Kopecsni, 2008;Ferraresi & Monticone, 2009;Fultz, 2006;Holzmann & Guven, 2009;Martin & Whitehouse, 2008;Sefton, Evandrou, Falkingham, & Vlachantoni, 2011;Soede, Vrooman, Ferraresi, & Segre, 2004;Zaidi et al, 2006); country-specific studies (Bottazzi, Jappelli, & Padula, 2006;Bridgen & Meyer, 2008;Flood, Klevmarken, & Mitrut, 2008;Fonseca & Sopraseuth, 2005;Frommert & Heien, 2006;Fultz & Steinhilber, 2003;Goodman et al, 2007;Orban & Palotai, 2005;Van de Coevering et al, 2006) and simulation studies (Falkingham & Johnson, 1995;Kotlikoff, Marx, & Rizza, 2006).…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The implications of demographic and economic projections on public pension spending in the European Union

Benítez-Aurioles

2018

J. int. comp. soc. policy

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This paper analyses the implications that demographic and economic projections have on public pension spending in the European Union (EU). Using some stylised facts, we study the aging trends of the population, as well as labour force and employment projections. Indices of both demographic and economic dependence are built. All of this is used to determine the impact on public pension spending in the EU. Although we detect substantial heterogeneity of circumstances, we show that the states in which aging of the population weights more in explaining public pension expenditure growth as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) are generally the ones that make greater efforts to control this spending. Given the limited capacity of policies to increase active population or employment to offset the effects of aging, measures aimed at diminishing the generosity of the public pension system and at promoting private schemes have gained relevance.

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Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The implications of demographic and economic projections on public pension spending in the European Union

Benítez-Aurioles

2018

J. int. comp. soc. policy

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“…As a result, microsimulation models are preferably endowed with simple -non-behavioural-rules for retirement: for example, assuming that individuals retire as soon as they are eligible (Borella & Moscarola, 2010) or aligning the transitions to the observed patterns (Dekkers et al, 2009;Leombruni & Richiardi, 2006). Recently, Tikanmäki, Sihvonen, and Salonen 2015 Similarly to those mentioned before, it is a model without behavioural adjustments in which the agegender-speci c behaviour is obtained from a macro model and the di ferences in transition probabilities between educational groups are extrapolated from the register data.…”

Section: The Microsimulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the Retirement Decision and Demographics on Pension Sustainability:A Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis

Patxot¹,

Juvés²,

Nieves³

et al. 2017

IJM

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This paper investigates how retirement decisions, in interaction with demographic changes, impact on pension system sustainability. To do so, we introduce behaviour into a dynamic microsimulation model applied to the Spanish case. Speci cally, the retirement decision is modelled using a reduced-form survival model that provides information on retirement hazards, which are then used to calculate times to retirement within the microsimulation model. This model allows us to account for behavioural responses. For example, the behavioural reaction to the 2011 reform improves pension system sustainability, despite individuals opting to retire later to obtain higher bene ts. The positive e fect (increase in contributions and reduction in time spent in retirement) is greater than the negative e fect (increase in pension levels). Additionally, the model allows us to show how the positive I J M (2018) 11(2) 84-108 85 e fects of the education transition and higher rates of female and older worker participation contribute to reducing the negative impact of population ageing.

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“…() and Dekkers et al . () suggest that reforms have led to a significant reduction in the redistributive effects of state pension systems and increased risks for those with interrupted careers and for unskilled workers. All of this is happening in the context of a significant reduction in future generosity of state pensions for the average person.…”

Section: A Review Of Studies Assessing the Impact Of Reforms On Pensimentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Possible Impact of Pension Reforms on Elderly Poverty in Europe

Grech

2014

Soc Policy Adm

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Since the 1990s reforms have changed substantially both the nature of state pension provision and the level of generosity. This article tries to assess the impact of these changes using estimates of pension wealth for a number of hypothetical cases. By focusing on all prospective pension transfers rather than just those at the point of retirement, this approach can provide additional insights, especially on the impact of changes in benefit indexation.These estimates corroborate existing evidence that reforms have decreased generosity significantly. Moves to link benefits to contributions have made systems less progressive, raising adequacy concerns for certain groups. The reforms have, in particular, strengthened the need of ensuring better access to labour markets, of having in place adequate crediting arrangements and minimum pensions.

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What are the Consequences of the AWG-Projections for the Adequacy of Social Security Pensions?

Cited by 16 publications

References 11 publications

The implications of demographic and economic projections on public pension spending in the European Union

The implications of demographic and economic projections on public pension spending in the European Union

The Impact of the Retirement Decision and Demographics on Pension Sustainability:A Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis

Evaluating the Possible Impact of Pension Reforms on Elderly Poverty in Europe

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