What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Brown, Sally; Nicholls, Robert J.; Lázár, Attila N.; Hornby, D.D.; Hill, Chris; Hazra, Sugata; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Haque, Anisul; Caesar, John; Tompkins, Emma L.

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1311-0

Cited by 62 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…By recognising the fact that throughout any decision-process subjective prioritisation and normative judgements are required 28,113 , no matter how much the process is quantified, an integrated approach based on expert judgement and consultation provides a pragmatic basis for decision-making. 56,57 Sea-level rise slows but does not stop with stabilisation, representing a long-term threat. Sea level is projected to be 0.40m and 1.00 m above present values by 2100 and 2300 43 , respectively (plus local subsidence).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

et al. 2019

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Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

et al. 2019

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“…Figure 2 shows the detailed spatial map for Andhra Pradesh coastal districts with the total number of cyclones occurring during the time period of 1951 to 2010. According to UNEP [6], more than 40% of the state is vulnerable to tropical storms, hurricane winds, severe floods and other associated natural hazards. The Godavari and Krishna River floods often contribute to serious disasters in the East and West Godavari and Krishna districts.…”

Section: Snapshot Of Coastal Vulnerability Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coastal environments are particularly vulnerable to the effects of disasters; partly due to denser urbanization and human populations and related economic activities such as agriculture, aquaculture, tourism, industries, trades and transportation in these locations [1][2][3][4][5]. Coastal areas tend to be relatively highly urbanized with higher concentrations of human populations [6,7]. Approximately 40% of the global human population lives within 60 km of the coast [8] and more than 25% of the human population in India lies within 50 km of the coast [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Studies along Andhra Pradesh, India: A Critical Evaluation of Data Gathering, Risk Levels and Mitigation Strategies

Kantamaneni

Rani²,

Rice

et al. 2019

Water

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The establishment and alteration of any coastal feature is largely dependent upon complex hydrological and geomorphologic processes. Therefore, understanding hazard factors and threat risk level is crucial for mitigating risk in coastal zones. This study examines coastal vulnerability factors and their influence along the Coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) region in India. CAP has been exposed to frequent hydrological and meteorological hazards due to variations in the geographical, geological, and bathymetric characteristics. Despite substantial vulnerabilities, the risk to the coastline of Andhra Pradesh has not been rigorously evaluated. The current research systematically reviews the drivers and effects of hazards and vulnerabilities in CAP. Findings indicate that urban cities have a considerably higher risk of cyclones and floods due to their locations on the Bay of Bengal tectonic plate, the topology of this coastal region, and higher population density. The study revealed that the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) data along CAP is mostly gathered using low-resolution satellite data and/or field observation surveys. The study further revealed that there are very few existing mitigation strategies developed or discussed within the obtained results. However, more accurate data gathering techniques for coastal vulnerability factors are available such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): Air-borne and LiDAR sensors, which provide very high resolution data and low-cost accessibility to physically inaccessible places, making them suitable for vulnerability data collection in coastal locations. These findings are useful for stakeholders seeking to reduce or ameliorate the impact of coastal disasters and their impacts on the CAP economy, environment, and population. The study further helps to reduce the existing shortcomings in the assessment techniques used previously.

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“…In protected areas, this increase is approximately 50%. The average area inundated would increase 2.5 times (Brown et al 2018).…”

Section: Uncertainties and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world

Lutz¹,

Maat²,

Wijngaard

et al. 2018

Reg Environ Change

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In 2015, with the signing of the BParis Agreement^, 195 countries committed to limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2°C with respect to pre-industrial levels and to aim at limiting the increase to 1.5°C by 2100. The regional ramifications of those thresholds remain however largely unknown and variability in the magnitude of change and the associated impacts are yet to be quantified. We provide a regional quantitative assessment of the impacts of a 1.5 versus a 2°C global warming for a major global climate change hotspot: the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins (IGB) in South Asia, by analyzing changes in climate change indicators based on 1.5 and 2°C global warming scenarios. In the analyzed ensemble of general circulation models, a global temperature increase of 1.5°C implies a temperature increase of 1.4-2.6 (μ = 2.1)°C for the IGB. For the 2.0°C scenario, the increase would be 2.0-3.4 (μ = 2.7)°C. We show that climate change impacts are more adverse under 2°C versus 1.5°C warming and that changes in the indicators' values are in general linearly correlated to average temperature increase. We also show that for climate projections following Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, which may be more realistic, the regional temperature increases and changes in climate change indicators are much stronger than for the 1.5 and 2°C scenarios.

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What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Cited by 62 publications

References 44 publications

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

A Systematic Review of Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Studies along Andhra Pradesh, India: A Critical Evaluation of Data Gathering, Risk Levels and Mitigation Strategies

South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world

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