What can local and geographic population limits tell us about distributions?

Sexton, Jason P.; Dickman, Erin E.

doi:10.3732/ajb.1500224

Cited by 17 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…Hilgard, 3230 m, by P. Raven, Record ID: CAS 389948). In a seed‐sowing experiment at field sites with habitats similar to those occupied by M. laciniatus , but beyond the current elevation limits, plants failed to establish self‐sustaining populations during 5 years of post‐experiment observation (Sexton & Dickman ), further indicating stable, contemporary range limits.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Changes in habitat quality and availability or biological interactions (e.g. competition) just beyond current limits may be important (Sexton & Dickman 2016). The change to chaparral environments at lower elevations, which lack winter snowpack, and to drier eastern Sierra environments beyond the crest at higher elevations (Barbour et al 2007) may represent critical ecological transitions where the slow-draining, rocky seeps upon which M. laciniatus grow become rare or absent.…”

Section: Regarding Causes Of Range Limitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate structures genetic variation across a species' elevation range: a test of range limits hypotheses

et al. 2016

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Gene flow may influence the formation of species range limits, and yet little is known about the patterns of gene flow with respect to environmental gradients or proximity to range limits. With rapid environmental change, it is especially important to understand patterns of gene flow to inform conservation efforts. Here we investigate the species range of the selfing, annual plant, Mimulus laciniatus, in the California Sierra Nevada. We assessed genetic variation, gene flow, and population abundance across the entire elevation-based climate range. Contrary to expectations, within-population plant density increased towards both climate limits. Mean genetic diversity of edge populations was equivalent to central populations; however, all edge populations exhibited less genetic diversity than neighbouring interior populations. Genetic differentiation was fairly consistent and moderate among all populations, and no directional signals of contemporary gene flow were detected between central and peripheral elevations. Elevation-driven gene flow (isolation by environment), but not isolation by distance, was found across the species range. These findings were the same towards highand low-elevation range limits and were inconsistent with two common centre-edge hypotheses invoked for the formation of species range limits: (i) decreasing habitat quality and population size; (ii) swamping gene flow from large, central populations. This pattern demonstrates that climate, but not centre-edge dynamics, is an important range-wide factor structuring M. laciniatus populations. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to relate environmental patterns of gene flow to range limits hypotheses. Similar investigations across a wide variety of taxa and life histories are needed.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Regarding Causes Of Range Limitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate structures genetic variation across a species' elevation range: a test of range limits hypotheses

et al. 2016

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“…Dispersal and habitat limitation studies in Mimulus leptaleus and Mimulus laciniatus in the California Sierra Nevada found that habitat limitation was more important than dispersal ability in limiting range expansion (Sexton and Dickman, 2016). However, in some cases there may be a lack of overlap between a species' future latitudinal or elevational range and the habitat needed to support it (Bellard et al, 2012).…”

Section: Habitat Specificitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Schierenbeck

2017

Ann Bot

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Introduction Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change.Factors influencing the distribution of genetic variation Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes.Regional priorities and examples A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude.Conclusions, Solutions and Recommendations The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species.

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“…Predicting range shifts and population persistence in the face of climate change is a major ecological challenge, one that is further complicated by the potential for local adaptation (LA) to historical climate. Many species show strong reductions in performance when individuals are moved beyond range boundaries, suggesting that many distributional limits are driven by species’ climate tolerances (Hargreaves, Samis, & Eckert, ; Lee‐Yaw et al, ; Sexton & Dickman, ). But broad climate tolerances at the species level are generally comprised of narrower, locally adapted tolerances at the scale of populations (e.g., Angert, Sheth, & Paul, ; Hoffman, Anderson, & Hallas, ; Kelly, Sanford, & Grosberg, ; Sheth & Angert, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species’ distribution and abundance under climate change

Peterson

Doak

Morris

2019

Global Change Biology

201

172

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Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species’ distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade‐off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species‐level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

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What can local and geographic population limits tell us about distributions?

Cited by 17 publications

References 95 publications

Climate structures genetic variation across a species' elevation range: a test of range limits hypotheses

Climate structures genetic variation across a species' elevation range: a test of range limits hypotheses

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species’ distribution and abundance under climate change

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