What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

Abstract. To improve the understanding of how aquifers in different alluvial settings respond to extreme events in a changing environment, we analyze standardized time series of groundwater levels (Standardized Groundwater level Index -SGI), precipitation (Standardized Precipitation Index -SPI), and river stages of three subregions within the catchment of the river Mur (Austria). Using correlation matrices, differences and similarities between the subregions, ranging from the Alpine upstream part of the catchment to its shallow foreland basin, are identified and visualized.Generally, river stages exhibit the highest correlations with groundwater levels, frequently affecting not only the wells closest to the river, but also more distant parts of the alluvial aquifer. As a result, human impacts on the river are transferred to the aquifer, thus affecting the behavior of groundwater levels. Hence, to avoid misinterpretation of groundwater levels in this type of setting, it is important to account for the river and human impacts on it.While the river is a controlling factor in all of the subregions, an influence of precipitation is evident too. Except for deep wells found in an upstream Alpine basin, groundwater levels show the highest correlation with a precipitation accumulation period of 6 months (SPI6). The correlation in the foreland is generally higher than that in the Alpine subregions, thus corresponding to a trend from deeper wells in the Alpine parts of the catchment towards more shallow wells in the foreland.Extreme events are found to affect the aquifer in different ways. As shown with the well-known European 2003 drought and the local 2009 floods, correlations are reduced under flood conditions, but increased under drought. Thus, precipitation, groundwater levels and river stages tend to exhibit uniform behavior under drought conditions, whereas they may show irregular behavior during floods. Similarly, correlations are found to be weaker in years with little snow as compared with those with much snow. This is in agreement with typical aquifer response times over 1 month, suggesting that short events such as floods will not affect much of the aquifer, whereas a long-term event such as a drought or snow-rich winter will.Splitting the time series into periods of 12 years reveals a tendency towards higher correlations in the most recent time period from 1999 to 2010. This time period also shows the highest number of events with SPI values below −2. The SGI values behave in a similar way only in the foreland aquifer, whereas the investigated Alpine aquifers exhibit a contrasting behavior with the highest number of low SGI events in the time before 1986. This is a result of overlying trends and suggests that the groundwater levels within these subregions are more strongly influenced by direct human impacts, e.g., on the river, than by changes in precipitation. Thus, direct human impacts must not be ignored when assessing climate change impacts on alluvial aquifers situated in populated valleys.

Section: Feasibility Of the Indices And Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Correlation Matrixmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of groundwater levels of alluvial aquifers in different settings using drought indices

Haas

Birk

2017

“…While the consequences for groundwater recharge and water availability have been scrutinized by many studies (e.g., Maxwell and Kollet, 2008;Ferguson and Maxwell, 2010;Stoll et al, 2011;Taylor et al, 2013;, there is still a lack of studies regarding the observation and analysis of the effects of recent climate change on shallow groundwater temperatures (Kløve et al, 2013). Groundwater temperature (GWT) is known to be an important driver for water quality (e.g., Green et al, 2011;Sharma et al, 2012;Hähnlein et al, 2013), and therefore it is a crucial parameter for groundwater resource quality management (Figura et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Menberg

Blum

Kurylyk

et al. 2014

130

Abstract. Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts (CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conductionadvection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on largescale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change.

“…This approach was previously used in several safety assessment studies (Palutikof and Goodess, 1991;Bechtel SAIC Company, 2004). More recently, Stoll et al (2011) studied groundwater recharge and quality using past analogue time series.…”

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of groundwater recharge using climatic analogues and HYDRUS-1D

Leterme

Mallants

Jacques

2012

Abstract. The sensitivity of groundwater recharge to different climate conditions was simulated using the approach of climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently experiencing climatic conditions corresponding to a possible future climate state. The study was conducted in the context of a safety assessment of a future near-surface disposal facility for low and intermediate level short-lived radioactive waste in Belgium; this includes estimation of groundwater recharge for the next millennia. Groundwater recharge was simulated using the Richards based soil water balance model HYDRUS-1D and meteorological time series from analogue stations. This study used four analogue stations for a warmer subtropical climate with changes of average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from −42 % to +5 % and from +8 % to +82 %, respectively, compared to the present-day climate. Resulting water balance calculations yielded a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 72 % to an increase of 3 % for the four different analogue stations. The Gijon analogue station (Northern Spain), considered as the most representative for the near future climate state in the study area, shows an increase of 3 % of groundwater recharge for a 5 % increase of annual precipitation. Calculations for a colder (tundra) climate showed a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 97 % to an increase of 32 % for four different analogue stations, with an annual precipitation change from −69 % to −14 % compared to the present-day climate.