What do epidemiologists mean by ‘population mixing’?

Law, Graham; Feltbower, Richard; Taylor, John; Parslow, Roger C; Gilthorpe, Mark S.; Boyle, Paul; McKinney, Patricia A.

doi:10.1002/pbc.21570

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Moving house, or population turnover, is frequent in modern life, and largely represents a form of ‘changing places': a high level implies nothing about any population increase. The authors of four of the above six papers have further emphasised their approach in a paper entitled ‘What do epidemiologists mean by population mixing', which states that ‘Kinlen's original concept has been extended to investigating mixing at a more general level..' (Law et al , 2008). However, the rationale for ignoring crucial aspects of the original definition was not discussed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

Kinlen

2012

Br J Cancer

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Background:Marked influxes of people into rural areas, termed rural population mixing (PM), have been associated with excesses of childhood leukaemia (CL), consistent with mini-epidemics of a mainly immunising, subclinical infection to which CL is a rare response. For such situations of rural PM would promote contacts between infected and susceptible individuals, the latter tending to have a higher than average prevalence in rural or isolated areas. Confusion has arisen from some workers applying the term PM to non-rural situations lacking known recent change.Methods:Available PM studies using the original definition of influxes were examined, a meta-analysis carried out of studies of CL in relation to exposure to high levels of rural PM, and also a detailed analysis by age group.Results:The meta-analysis of 17 studies shows a significant CL excess in association with rural PM: overall relative risk (RR) at ages 0–14: 1.57; 95% confidence interval 1.44–1.72; at 0–4 years 1.72 (1.54–1.91). This contrasts with the absence of an excess of CL in similarly exposed urban areas (RR 1.00; 0.93–1.07), pointing to a high level of immunity there. The mixed results of studies using other definitions of PM were summarised. The excess associated with rural PM below age 2 years (RR 1.51; 1.17, 1.92) was not appreciably different from that at later childhood ages.Conclusion:Much of the inconsistency among studies ostensibly about CL and PM reflects the use of definitions other than that originally proposed. The broad similarity of the CL excess below age 2 with that at older childhood ages is inconsistent with the Greaves' delayed infection hypothesis, since any infection underlying the former is difficult to consider as delayed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

Kinlen

2012

Br J Cancer

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“…Kinlen proposes that childhood leukemia is an uncommon response of an immunologically naive rural and geographically isolated population exposed to an otherwise commonplace infection due to a sudden influx of a predominantly urban population [ 4 ]. Although Kinlen’s original hypothesis was restricted to leukemia and its occurrence in childhood, the concept of population mixing has, however, been extended by researchers beyond this specific hypothesis and has been used as a proxy measure for infection spread among populations [ 3 ]. Researchers have thus examined relationships between incidence of cancers and population mixing when a biological plausibility for an infectious cause for cancer exists.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Population mixing is seen as a proxy measure for infection transmission [ 3 ]. The original population mixing hypothesis proposed by Kinlen [ 4 ] suggests leukemia occurs as a rare response to a mini-epidemic arising from the intermixing of rural immunologically naive populations with migrants of predominantly urban origins.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population mixing and incidence of cancers in adolescents and young adults between 1990 and 2013 in Yorkshire, UK

Imam

Fairley

Parslow

et al. 2016

Cancer Causes Control

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PurposeEpidemiological evidence suggests a role for an infectious etiology for cancers in teenagers and young adults (TYAs). We investigated this by describing associations between infection transmission using the population mixing (PM) proxy and incidence of cancers in TYAs in Yorkshire, UK.MethodsWe extracted cancer cases from the Yorkshire Specialist Register of Cancer in Children and Young People from 1990 to 2013 (n = 1929). Using multivariable Poisson regression models (adjusting for effects of deprivation and population density), we investigated whether PM was associated with cancer incidence. We included population mixing–population density interaction terms to examine for differences in effects of PM in urban and rural populations.ResultsNonsignificant IRRs were observed for leukemias (IRR 1.20, 95% CI 0.91–1.59), lymphomas (IRR 1.09, 95% CI 0.90–1.32), central nervous system tumors (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 0.80–1.40) and germ cell tumors (IRR 1.14, 95% CI 0.92–1.41). The association between PM and cancer incidence did not vary in urban and rural areas.ConclusionsStudy results suggest PM is not associated with incidence of cancers among TYAs. This effect does not differ between rural and urban settings.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10552-016-0797-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…(We use cross-parenting in IZA Journal of Development and Migration preference to cross-breeding, the term common in biology, as it has a greater connotation of voluntary choice. Note too that the term population mixing in our context differs from its definition in epidemiology where it refers to contacts among people as a result of spatial movement; see Law et al 2008. ) In the analysis that follows, we will define three populations, a non-immigrant population, an immigrant population (original immigrants and their descendants), and a mixed population, and we will employ a simplified or "stylized" demographic projection model to trace the evolution of each population from one generation to the next under alternative assumptions about the propensity to cross-parent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Immigration and the Rate of Population Mixing: Explorations with a Stylized Model

Denton

Spencer

2016

SSRN Journal

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The integration or mixing of immigrants with non-immigrants is an important issue in many countries. There are various forms of mixing. We consider here crossparenting, the bearing of children with one immigrant parent and one nonimmigrant. Our objective is to model cross-parenting as a demographic process and investigate the rate at which such mixing could occur. We identify three populations within an overall total: non-immigrant, immigrant, and mixed. A model is constructed to track the three as they change and interact through cross-parenting. The populations evolve by simulation in accordance with a common stable projection matrix. However, as cross-parenting between immigrants and non-immigrants occurs, the progeny are transferred to the mixed population; the immigrant and non-immigrant populations are thus depleted by the transfers and the mixed population augmented in each generation. The transfers are governed by underlying preferences, but the preference pattern must be modified to recognize constraints imposed by differences in population size. A restricted leastsquares procedure effects the modification so that the actual pattern is as close as possible to the preferred one. Simulations are carried out with alternative preferential patterns and rates of immigration. Of particular interest is the proportion of mixed population in the total in each generation and the final steady state. The paper develops a new framework and model to show the rate at which population mixing could occur under alternative assumptions about the immigration rate and preferences for cross-parenting.

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What do epidemiologists mean by ‘population mixing’?

Cited by 18 publications

References 69 publications

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

Population mixing and incidence of cancers in adolescents and young adults between 1990 and 2013 in Yorkshire, UK

Immigration and the Rate of Population Mixing: Explorations with a Stylized Model

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