What do we know about past changes in the water cycle of Central Asian headwaters? A review

Unger‐Shayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Farinotti, Daniel; Gafurov, Abror; Duethmann, Doris; Mandychev, Alexander N.; Merz, Bruno

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.004

Cited by 229 publications

(223 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…5 The distribution of slope coefficient (Slop) between temperature and SCF (a), runoff and SCF (b), temperature and precipitation (c), temperature and ratio of snowfall to precipitation (S/P) (d), rainfall and runoff (e), snowfall and runoff (f).…”

Section: The Relationship Between Runoff and Meteorological Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes have a long-term impact on the available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions where the dominant water resource is snowmelt-or glacier-melt water, such as the mountainous areas of the Central Asia (CA). CA has the most meltwater-dependent river systems in the world [4], and the river flow is experiencing significant changes in the context of intensified snow or glacier melting [5]. The contributions of snowmelt water to runoff at regional scales deserve our great attention.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Bai

Shi³

et al. 2018

Water

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Seasonal snowmelt water from mountainous areas is critical for water supply in arid regions. Snowmelt profoundly affects the parameterization of the Budyko framework, which describes the long-term relationship between precipitation and runoff. This is true in Xinjiang, a representative arid region in Northwest China. However, the effects of snowmelt water on the water balance in this region remain unclear. Based on observed runoff data in 64 catchments of Xinjiang during 2000-2010, we analyzed the effects of meltwater in the local water balance both spatially and temporally through the Budyko curve and redundancy analysis (RDA) methods, and then investigated the influences of changing meltwater on runoff. Inclusion of snowmelt water into the item of the water availability significantly improved the performance of the Budyko equation for predicting runoff. The results of RDA showed that snowmelt water, potential evaporation (PET), and rainfall combined explained 66% of the spatial variations in runoff, while the individual effects of snowmelt water, PET, and rainfall were 19%, 13%, and 1%, respectively, with the interactions among the three variables being 16%. These results suggest that the accelerating changes of meltwater due to climate warming will significantly alter the regimes of runoff in these regions.

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Section: The Relationship Between Runoff and Meteorological Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Bai

Shi³

et al. 2018

Water

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“…With regards to climate change, the CA region has a rising air temperature trend with the biggest increase in the winter in the northern and mountain areas (this increase is characteristic of what is occurring over most of the Northern Hemisphere) and stronger summer warming in the southern part [22,23,74]. In a recent review of climate studies on CA's headwater catchments, Unger-Shayesteh et al [74] reported a range of −0.1 to +0.6 • C trend per decade of annual air temperature change.…”

Section: Effects Of the Global Circulation Climate Change And Local mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a recent review of climate studies on CA's headwater catchments, Unger-Shayesteh et al [74] reported a range of −0.1 to +0.6 • C trend per decade of annual air temperature change. Higher air temperatures will increase saturation vapor pressure amplifying atmospheric demand for water and thus potential evaporation, which in turn will affect the levels of endorheic lakes.…”

Section: Effects Of the Global Circulation Climate Change And Local mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The majority of studies on precipitation changes in CA, using both modeling and observations, report no significant trends [22][23][24]74,80]. The recent framework developed by Roderick et al [81] for local climate change impact on the hydrological cycle, based on an analysis of Budyko'a curve applied to the surface energy balance, suggests that a greater warming in summer in south CA indicates a decrease in actual terrestrial evaporation, despite increased PET, due to a limited moisture supply.…”

Section: Effects Of the Global Circulation Climate Change And Local mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Essentials of Endorheic Basins and Lakes: A Review in the Context of Current and Future Water Resource Management and Mitigation Activities in Central Asia

Yapiyev

Sagin

Inglezakis

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:Endorheic basins (i.e., land-locked drainage networks) and their lakes can be highly sensitive to variations in climate and adverse anthropogenic activities, such as overexploitation of water resources. In this review paper, we provide a brief overview of one major endorheic basin on each continent, plus a number of endorheic basins in Central Asia (CA), a region where a large proportion of the land area is within this type of basin. We summarize the effects of (changing) climate drivers and land surface-atmosphere feedbacks on the water balance. For the CA region, we also discuss key anthropogenic activities, related water management approaches and their complex relationship with political and policy issues. In CA a substantial increase in irrigated agriculture coupled with negative climate change impacts have disrupted the fragile water balance for many endorheic basins and their lakes. Transboundary integrated land and water management approaches must be developed to facilitate adequate climate change adaptation and possible mitigation of the adverse anthropogenic influence on endorheic basins in CA. Suitable climate adaptation, mitigation and efficient natural resource management technologies and methods are available, and are developing fast. A number of these are discussed in the paper, but these technologies alone are not sufficient to address pressing water resource issues in CA. Food-water-energy nexus analyses demonstrate that transboundary endorheic basin management requires transformational changes with involvement of all key stakeholders. Regional programs, supported by local governments and international donors, which incorporate advanced adaptation technologies, water resource research and management capacity development, are essential for successful climate change adaptation efforts in CA. However, there is a need for an accelerated uptake of such programs, with an emphasis on unification of approaches, as the pressures resulting from climate change and aggravated by human mismanagement of natural water resources leave very little time for hesitation.

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Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

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Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period . This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.

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What do we know about past changes in the water cycle of Central Asian headwaters? A review

Cited by 229 publications

References 87 publications

Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Essentials of Endorheic Basins and Lakes: A Review in the Context of Current and Future Water Resource Management and Mitigation Activities in Central Asia

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

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