What Do You Mean, ‘Tipping Point’?

Nes, Egbert H. van; Arani, Babak M. S.; Staal, Arie; Bolt, Bregje van der; Flores, Bernardo M.; Bathiany, Sebastian; Scheffer, Marten

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.011

Cited by 200 publications

(120 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…To this end, we differentiated between clustered perturbations, in which a “deforestation” (and “afforestation”) of a single square area is imposed, and randomly distributed perturbations. We showed that both types of perturbation to the high tree cover state (low tree cover state) may cross a tipping point (sensu Van Nes et al., ), meaning that the entire lattice undergoes a transition. However, the transition in response to a clustered perturbation takes longer than to a random perturbation, whereas the clustered perturbation requires a smaller critical size.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…This implies hysteresis: For different initial conditions, the system may end up in different end states under the same environmental conditions. Alternative stable states are usually separated by tipping points (sensu Van Nes et al., ). Away from tipping points, relatively large environmental changes may have small effects, but close to tipping points, even small changes in an environmental factor can produce a shift that is hard to reverse (Scheffer, Carpenter, Foley, Folke, & Walker, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Staal

Nes

Hantson

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Fires and herbivores shape tropical vegetation structure, but their effects on the stability of tree cover in different climates remain elusive. Here, we integrate empirical and theoretical approaches to determine the effects of climate on fire- and herbivore-driven forest-savanna shifts. We analyzed time series of remotely sensed tree cover and fire observations with estimates of herbivore pressure across the tropics to quantify the fire-tree cover and herbivore-tree cover feedbacks along climatic gradients. From these empirical results, we developed a spatially explicit, stochastic fire-vegetation model that accounts for herbivore pressure. We find emergent alternative stable states in tree cover with hysteresis across rainfall conditions. Whereas the herbivore-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover below 1,100 mm mean annual rainfall, the fire-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover at higher rainfall levels. Interestingly, the rainfall range where fire-driven alternative vegetation states can be found depends strongly on rainfall variability. Both higher seasonal and interannual variability in rainfall increase fire frequency, but only seasonality expands the distribution of fire-maintained savannas into wetter climates. The strength of the fire-tree cover feedback depends on the spatial configuration of tree cover: Landscapes with clustered low tree-cover areas are more susceptible to cross a tipping point of fire-driven forest loss than landscapes with scattered deforested patches. Our study shows how feedbacks involving fire, herbivores, and the spatial structure of tree cover explain the resilience of tree cover across climates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Staal

Nes

Hantson

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

Self Cite

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“…It is also possible that temporary seasonal shifts in resource limitation, as has been observed in the Chesapeake Bay including the freshwater tidal portion of the Potomac River [21], may have been unnoticed. The positive feedback loop between SAV and turbidity, as described in Reference [10], contributed to the rapid expansion of SAV once the conditions were suitable for re-establishment. The bottom profile of the embayment played a role in these distinct shifts as well; the SAV established in 1993 appeared in areas that were shallower than the predicted maximum colonization depth of SAV.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The area covered with SAV in summer has remained relatively stable since then, as the area not colonized within the embayment is much deeper. These factors combined to establish the conditions for tipping points to occur, where a small change in water quality and clarity resulted in a large change in SAV cover at two distinct moments in time [10].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Successes of Restoration and Its Effect on the Fish Community in a Freshwater Tidal Embayment of the Potomac River, USA

Mutsert

Sills²,

Schlick

et al. 2017

Water

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After a local wastewater treatment plant significantly reduced phosphorus loading into a phytoplankton-dominated tributary of the Potomac River in the early 1980s, water quality and biological communities were monitored bi-weekly from April to September. After a 10-year time-lag, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), once abundant in this freshwater tidal embayment, returned to the area in 1993. After additional reductions in nitrogen load starting in 2000, the system switched to an SAV-dominated state in 2005. Fish abundance did not change during these distinct phase changes, but the fish community structure did. Increases in SAV provided refuge and additional spawning substrate for species with adhesive eggs such as Banded Killifish (Fundulus diaphanus), which is now the most abundant species in the embayment. Other changes observed were a decrease in the relative contribution of open water dwelling species such as White Perch (Morone americana), and an increase of visual predators such as Largemouth Bass (Micropterus salmoides). The 30-year record of data from this Potomac River tributary has revealed important long-term trends that validate the effectiveness of initiatives to reduce excess nutrient inputs, and will aid in the continued management of the watershed and point-source inputs.

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“…The term "Tipping Point" is increasingly used in research on socioecological systems to describe phenomena comparable to the better known term "Regime Shift" in ecological systems [10]. We refer to a general definition for TPs from van Nes et al [11]: "Any situation where accelerating change caused a positive feedback [that] drives the system to a new state". To date, only few studies have looked at TPs in ESS supply.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia

et al. 2018

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Rubber plantations have expanded at an unprecedented rate in Southeast Asia in recent decades. This has led to a substantial decline in the supply of ecosystem services (ESS) and has reduced livelihood options and socioeconomic well-being in rural areas. We assessed the impact of two land use scenarios on the supply of ESS in a mountainous watershed in Xishuangbanna Prefecture, People's Republic of China. We combined time-series data derived from spatially explicit ESS models (InVEST) with a sequential, data-driven algorithm (R-method) to identify potential tipping points (TPs) in the supply of ESS under two rubber plantation expansion scenarios. TPs were defined as any situation in which the state of a system is changed through positive feedback as a result of accelerating changes. The TP analysis included hydrological, agronomical, and climate-regulation ESS, as well as multiple facets of biodiversity (habitat quality for vertebrate, invertebrate, and plant species). We identified regime shifts indicating potential tipping points, which were linked to abrupt changes in rubber yields, in both scenarios at varying spatial scales. With this study, we provide an easily applicable method for regional policy making and land use planning in data-scarce environments to reduce the risk of traversing future TPs in ESS supply for rubber producing land use systems.

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What Do You Mean, ‘Tipping Point’?

Cited by 200 publications

References 8 publications

Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Successes of Restoration and Its Effect on the Fish Community in a Freshwater Tidal Embayment of the Potomac River, USA

Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia

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