What does a City Master Plan Tell about our Safety? Comparative Analysis of Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipeda

Abstract

High rates of crime have always been considered a serious threat to city development. Crime and urban development are strongly interconnected, therefore, local development policies cannot be successful without crime prevention strategies. One of the areas where local governments are characterized by quite a high degree of independence is that of urban planning, typically documented in a city master plan. In the light of the topic of safety in the urban space, one of the most notable measures of space evaluation is that of land use. The paper is aimed at identifying land uses, the most vulnerable to crime and the safest ones, and their permutations in the three largest cities of Lithuania: Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipeda, in accordance with both different types of criminal acts and crime as a whole. The findings have been based on the analysis of about 50 thousand incidents of antisocial behavior, committed in open public spaces, along 17 types of criminal acts and 14 types of land uses and their permutations. The underlying approach is that of space syntax, as it best integrates social and spatial elements of a city. The paper is novel in its attempt to access not only separate land uses, but also their clusters (i.e., permutations). In addition, the paper covers a broader range of antisocial behavior than most of the previously carried out research (i.e., the paper looks beyond theft, burglary, and robbery) used to. Therefore, the results might be of interest to a wider audience than the national one.

Predicting Safe Parking Spaces: A Machine Learning Approach to Geospatial Urban and Crime Data

“…Therefore, sustainable development can be achieved by improving safety and security, and crime can be reduced by the correct implementation of urban planning and design. The study by Stankevice et al [7] revealed that when green areas and specialized areas are incorporated into the residential areas, we observe less crime. Also, public areas combined with residential and green areas lead to crime reduction.…”

Comparing Residents’ Fear of Crime with Recorded Crime Data—Case Study of Ostrava, Czech Republic

“…Therefore, it is important to consider these aspects when planning urban design. For example, Stankevice et al [40] demonstrated that specialised areas and greenery in dense residential areas contribute to crime prevention. However, if these areas are combined with local centres, commercial or industrial areas, they become even more attractive to criminals.…”

Prediction of Hourly Effect of Land Use on Crime

“…Several research cases have proven that planning of land use contributes to the decrease of crime. The research conducted by Stankevice et al [20] demonstrates that specialized areas, greenery when included into dense residential areas, as well as public lands combined with residential and green areas, contribute to less crime. Another example is that pickpocketing often happens in mixed land use areas, mostly commercial.…”