What does the future hold for a thermophilic and widely introduced gecko, Tarentola mauritanica (Squamata: Phyllodactylidae)?

Abstract

The continuous growth and movement of the human population is increasing the frequency of translocating species from their native ranges to novel environments. However, biological invasions offer a rare opportunity to investigate how species can colonise and adapt to new conditions. In that sense, Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) can be a powerful tool to predict where invasive species will spread over the next decades, although they depend heavily on climatic niche conservatism between native and exotic ranges. To reduce these uncertainties, ENMs can be refined by accounting for dispersal constraints. The common wall gecko, Tarentola mauritanica is a native and widespread Mediterranean lizard that has been introduced across different tropical and sub-tropical regions. In this study, we aim to predict the potential and future distribution of T. mauritanica geckos using correlative models, its potential colonization regions under a dispersal model, and the niche overlap between native and introduced populations. The correlative models predict that the most suitable geographic areas for this gecko correspond to Mediterranean-type ecosystems, such as California, central Chile, the Cape Region of South Africa, around the Caspian Sea, south-eastern Asia, and south-western and southern Australia. The species distribution models projected to 2061–2080, forecast that the range of T. mauritanica is likely to shift towards northern latitudes but, surprisingly, not to expand. According to the dispersal models, T. mauritanica will be able to colonise a similar geographic range compared to the one obtained with the correlative models for the future. Finally, the niche overlap results demonstrate that T. mauritanica’s realised niche has not been conserved over space, as the naturalised climatic niche of the introduced populations differs significantly from its native one. The latter results suggest that there has been no climatic niche conservatism during the several introductions of T. mauritanica and that this species seems to be able to cope with novel and more humid environments, typical from the tropics.

Flame-forged divergence? Ancient human fires and the evolution of diurnal and nocturnal lineages in Mediterranean geckos

“…Tarentola mauritanica is active during both diurnal and nocturnal hours, occupying a variety of ecological niches, such as tree trunks, houses, and stone walls [22][23][24]. This species represents an interesting example of plastic variation, highlighted by its ability to adapt its skin colour according to the substrate [25].…”

“…In fact, the colonizaKon of the Iberian Peninsula by Moorish gecko from North Africa could have been during the Messinian Salinity Crisis, or aser the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar during the early Pliocene (Rato et al 2012). The Moorish gecko is acKve during diurnal and nocturnal hours, occupying a variety of ecological niches, such as tree trunks, houses, and stone walls (Fulgione et al 2019;Rato et al 2023;Valverde 5 2004). This species represents an interesKng example of plasKc variaKon, highlighted by the ability to accommodate its skin color according to the substrate (Vroonen et al 2012) (Fig.…”