What drags and drives mobility? Explaining Canada's aggregate migration patterns

Abstract

Using census data at the economic region level from 1991 to 2006 and a gravity model framework, this paper examines the factors that influence migration within Canada. Results from both Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood and negative binominal regression models suggest that provincial borders are statistically significant barriers to migration but the magnitude of their effect varies by model specification. The regression results also indicate that differences in employment rates, household incomes and language are important in explaining migration between Canadian economic regions. We also find evidence that the negative effect of distance on migration may be declining over time.

The Effects of Capital on Interprovincial Migration: A Nova Scotia Focused Assessment

“…However, the model rejects unemployment as a significant determinant and suggests a negative relationship between weighted migration and capital investment. This result is contrary to empirical findings in the literature, suggesting unemployment rate is an important interprovincial determinant (Coulombe, 2006;Amirault, D., de Munnik, D., & Miller, S., 2012;Day & Winer, 2006;Foot & Milne, 1984).…”

“…Amirault et al 2012explore Canadian migration by using intra-provincial data (not common in the literature). Using a gravity model, the authors substantiate past results by finding that differences in employment rate, household income, and language are important in explaining migration (Amirault et al, 2012). More significantly for policy formulation, the authors found that provincial borders pose a statistically significant obstruction to interprovincial mobility, with the predominance of Canadian migration occurring intra-provincially (Amirault et al, 2012).…”

“…Depending on the region, intra-provincial movements may be 10% to 98% higher than interprovincial movements (Amirault et al, 2012). Additionally, the authors found that the meaningful determinant of distance has been decreasing over time, indicating that individuals are more willing to move to regions further away (Amirault et al, 2012). For policy practitioners, the diminishing importance of distance is an important finding because regional competition for labour is less restricted to a region's surrounding provinces.…”

“…Within Canada, the literature examining aggregate migration often compares provincial data using gravity models with a variety of variables. Principally, the differentials in unemployment, earnings, and moving costs are strongly related to migration within Canada (Coulombe, 2006;Amirault, D., & de Munnik, D., & Miller, S., 2012;Day & Winer, 2006;Foot & Milne, 1984). While the preceding variables may be intuitive, recent…”

“…The TSCSREG procedure in SAS was used to deal with the panel data set consisting of time series observations (years) on each of several cross-sectional units (provinces) (SAS, 2014). By adjusting for these two dimensions, time-series cross sectional regression can help mitigate potential unobserved heterogeneity issues (Amirault et al, 2012). Table 2 presents the indicators used in the chosen econometric model, as well as a description of the indicator and the reason for its inclusion.…”