What drives oil prices? — A Markov switching VAR approach

Gong, Xu; Guan, Keqin; Chen, Liqing; Liu, Tangyong; Fu, Chengbo

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102316

Cited by 27 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 79 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, their impact magnitude lowers rapidly in the 1st period, and next takes negative values. During the second period, the suggested effects start to increase and finally converge after the 4th period because of the “inertia” of

SED

shocks (Gong et al, 2021). Contrasting shocks associated with SED itself, ES, and EVS policies, the reaction of

SED

EE

shocks was negligible over the entire period.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable economic development and geopolitics: The role of energy trilemma policies

Shirazi

Fuinhas

Silva

2023

Sustainable Development

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study reveals and supports the existence of a three-way connection between sustainable economic development (SED), geopolitical risks (GPRI), and the energy trilemma (ET). The impacts of ET on SED, and GPRI were analyzed using a regimeswitching vector autoregressive model. Results reveal mostly a positive impact of ET on SED. Consequently, decision-makers should design policies that promote ET to enhance economic growth and sustainability. However, decision-makers should acknowledge that uncertainty regarding the impact of these policies on SED and the time lag until their effects are felt in economies varies widely across regimes. Geopolitical risk reveals a slightly positive short-term reaction to ET under the slightly downward regime and a durable cyclical pattern in the sharply upward one. The cyclical impact of energy equity and security on GPRI is positive, while environmental sustainability reduces geopolitical risk. This fluctuating pattern of the response of GPRI to ET policies is compatible with prior research that shows these policies may either foster or mitigate geopolitical risk. Detailed knowledge of the differing impacts of ET-related policies on geopolitical risk is fundamental for decision-makers if they want the counteract some of their adverse effects and enhance geopolitical stability.

show abstract

SED

shocks (Gong et al, 2021). Contrasting shocks associated with SED itself, ES, and EVS policies, the reaction of

SED

EE

shocks was negligible over the entire period.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable economic development and geopolitics: The role of energy trilemma policies

Shirazi

Fuinhas

Silva

2023

Sustainable Development

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Another strand of literature on the role of natural resources on economic development has been based on the resource curse and blessing thesis ([ 6 , 19 , [36] , [37] , [38] , [39] , [40] ]). Resource curse literature sought to explain why resource rich countries have not been able to use their natural resources to develop or enhance growth within their economies compared to non-resources rich countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resource abundance: Blessing or curse? Comparative analyses of point and diffuse resources

Dinga,

Mama,

Achuo

2024

Heliyon

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…The link between energy and financial markets in EU has been analyzed in recent years. Gong et al (2021) study the impact of different oil shocks on oil price and show that oil inventories and speculative demand have more significant effects on price fluctuation than aggregate demand and supply of oil. Fang and Shao (2022) show how the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly increases the volatility of agricultural, metals and energy markets through both economic and financial channels.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia–Ukraine Conflict, Commodities and Stock Market: A Quantile VAR Analysis

Manelli,

Pace,

Leone

2024

JRFM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Russia–Ukrainian war, which began in 2014 and exploded with the invasion of the Russian army on 24 February 2022, has profoundly destabilized the political, economic and financial balance of Europe and beyond. To the humanitarian emergency associated with every war has been added the deep crisis generated by the strong energy and food dependence that many European countries, and not only European, have developed over decades on Ukraine (especially for wheat) and Russia (especially for natural gas). The aim of this article is to verify the existence of a link between the performance of the Eurostoxx index and the price of wheat futures and TTF natural gas, from 25 February 2019 to 28 September 2023. Through a quantile VAR analysis, a link is sought between the Eurostoxx 50 index, and wheat and TTF gas futures prices. Furthermore, the analysis intends to understand whether the presence of such relationship only manifested itself following the war events, or whether it was already present in the market. The analysis carried out also shows that the relationship between the stock market and raw material prices was present even before the conflict.

show abstract

What drives oil prices? — A Markov switching VAR approach

Cited by 27 publications

References 79 publications

Sustainable economic development and geopolitics: The role of energy trilemma policies

Sustainable economic development and geopolitics: The role of energy trilemma policies

Resource abundance: Blessing or curse? Comparative analyses of point and diffuse resources

Russia–Ukraine Conflict, Commodities and Stock Market: A Quantile VAR Analysis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About