What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies

Ruppert, Kilian; Stähler, Nikolai

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105769

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 72 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Their model does not allow for CSP and wage dispersion, and they doe not discuss the effect of price markup shocks on net exports. Schoen and Staehler (2020) and Ruppert and Staehler (2022) simulate the effect of aging as well as tax, pension, and labor market reforms on the DE current account using OLG models of DE, REA and ROW. They attribute an increase in the current account balance of about 1-3 percentage points on average over the 2000-2020 period to aging as the most important driver.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They attribute an increase in the current account balance of about 1-3 percentage points on average over the 2000-2020 period to aging as the most important driver. The effect of the German labor market and tax reforms have been mostly found to have small or marginal effects on DE net exports (see Hochmuth et al (2019), Ruppert and Staehler (2022), Gadatsch et al (2016b) and Kollmann et al (2015)). Furthermore, Kollmann et al (2015) estimate a "private saving shock", i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Income Inequality and the German Export Surplus

Rannenberg

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Income Inequality and the German Export Surplus

Rannenberg

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Indeed, it has been extensively discussed that the German scal reforms at the end of the 1990s increases in VAT and fuel taxes and labor reforms Hartz law between 2003 and 2005 have led to a contraction of the household's revenues and pushed precautionary saving, explaining the increase of the German surplus.See, among others,Kollmann et al (2015) andRuppert and Stähler (2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces

Faure,

Grekou,

Mignon

2023

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper revisits the crucial issue of current account imbalances and focuses on the determinants of their gaps between eurozone Member States. We conduct robust estimations of the current account balances for a panel of ten founding euro area economies and construct a measure that allows us to diagnose why some countries have started to diverge from the eurozone mean in the last two decades. Our findings show evidence of remaining differences in countries’ economic development, meaning that real macroeconomic convergence has failed in the zone. Price and cost competitiveness, as well as fiscal balances, have also participated in this growing macroeconomic divergence. Overall, while the European authorities cannot influence the part of the current account gaps due to demographic factors, the role of fiscal redistribution and investment at the euro area level could help achieve macroeconomic convergence and thus reduce current accounts’ divergence in the zone.

show abstract

Robust Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in Emerging and Developing Countries

Mbassi,

Samba,

Lakouetene

2024

Int. J Fin Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We aim to identify robust determinants of current account imbalances in 87 emerging and developing countries in the context of model uncertainty and selection bias, from 1980 to 2017. The uncertainty arises from the diversity of competing theories and the contradictory findings of empirical works, while the systemic unavailability of current account data causes selection bias. To overcome these issues, we extend Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to HeckitBMA in order to address model uncertainty in the presence of selection bias. We find that out of 21 potential determinants, only 10 are robust determinants. However, these determinants differ according to country groupings, and since the 2008 financial crisis, some determinants have gained importance, such as inflation targeting, macroprudential policies, and income inequality. Finally, we find that the determinants of current account surpluses are not strictly the same as those of deficits. Our results shed more light on how policy makers can manage current account imbalances and which levers to use.

show abstract

What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies

Cited by 6 publications

References 72 publications

Income Inequality and the German Export Surplus

Income Inequality and the German Export Surplus

Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces

Robust Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in Emerging and Developing Countries

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About