What Follows What? Relations between Economic Indicators, Economic Expectations of the Public, and News on the General Economy and Unemployment in Germany, 2002-2011

Lischka, Juliane A.

doi:10.1177/1077699015574098

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In line with the proposal that economic forecasts in media news may generate a self-fulfilling prophecy effect [6,8,11–17,19,25–29,31,33–35] positive and negative economic messages caused participants to take more and less risk in the BART, respectively (Fig 2). Participants acted in accordance with the forecasted reality of the BART economy, adapting their risk taking as if the predicted change had already occurred, whereas in fact no change had occurred at all.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

2017

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This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals’ economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a within-subjects experiment, participants (N = 40) played 180 trials in a Balloon Analogue Risk Talk (BART) in which they could make actual profit. Simple messages about possible (positive and negative) changes in outcome probabilities of future trials had significant effects on measures of risk taking (number of inflations) and actual profits in the game. These effects were enduring, even though no systematic changes in actual outcome probabilities took place following any of the messages. Risk taking also found to be reflected in reaction times revealing increasing reaction times with riskier decisions. Positive and negative economic forecasts affected reaction times slopes differently, with negative forecasts resulting in increased reaction time slopes as a function of risk. These findings suggest that forecasted positive or negative economic change can bias people’s mental model of the economy and reduce or stimulate risk taking. Possible implications for media-fulfilling prophecies in the domain of the economy are considered.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

2017

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“…Haller and Norpoth (1997) called the economy “a classic example of a ‘doorstep issue’” (p. 556). There are many alternative sources that contribute to people’s consumer confidence (Katona, 1975), including real-world economic conditions (Lischka, 2015) and interpersonal communication (Mutz, 1998). The modest media effects may, however, also be related to methodological choices .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Media Effects Across Time and Subject: How News Coverage Affects Two Out of Four Attributes of Consumer Confidence

Boukes

Damstra

Vliegenthart

2019

Communication Research

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Previous studies using aggregate-level designs demonstrated that the tone of economic news affects consumer confidence. However, the individual-level mechanisms underlying this effect remain to be investigated: It is not clear which consumer confidence attributes are most susceptible to media effects. Theoretically, we integrate the economic voting literature and extend media system dependency by differentiating between the media effects on sociotropic versus egocentric evaluations and the effects on prospective versus retrospective economic evaluations. Methodologically, data from a manual content analysis are linked to data from a three-wave panel survey, containing repeated measurements of consumer confidence. The findings demonstrate that the effects of tone on consumer confidence are largely a consequence of media effects on its sociotropic and prospective attributes: As citizens were exposed to relatively more positive economic news, only the national economic evaluations and expectations for the future improved. The egocentric and retrospective evaluations were not influenced by the tone in news that people had been exposed to.

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“…More recently, Soroka, Stecula, and Wlezien (), using 31,180 news stories over 20 years in the USA, found how media measures just do a very good job capturing the economy itself, better even than particular economic indicators. Similarly, Lischka () uses VAR/Granger methodologies to check the dynamic relationships among real‐world indicators, public expectations, and aggregated news on the general economy for the four most popular news outlets in Germany from 2002 to 2011.…”

Section: Composite Coincident Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends

Bujosa

Garcı́a-Ferrer

Juan

et al. 2019

Journal of Forecasting

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We present a composite coincident indicator designed to capture the state of the Spanish economy. Our approach, based on smooth trends, guarantees that the resulting indicators are reasonably smooth and issue stable signals, reducing the uncertainty. The coincident indicator has been checked by comparing it with the one recently proposed by the Spanish Economic Association index. Both indexes show similar behavior and ours captures very well the beginning and end of the official recessions and expansion periods. Our coincident indicator also tracks very well alternative mass media indicators typically used in the political science literature. We also update our composite leading indicator (Bujosa, García-Ferrer, and de Juan, 2013). It systematically predicts the peaks and troughs of the new Spanish Economic Association index and provides significant aid in forecasting annual GDP growth rates. Using only real data available at the beginning of each forecast period, our indicator one step-ahead forecasts shows improvements over other individual alternatives and different forecast combinations.

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What Follows What? Relations between Economic Indicators, Economic Expectations of the Public, and News on the General Economy and Unemployment in Germany, 2002-2011

Cited by 16 publications

References 39 publications

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

Media Effects Across Time and Subject: How News Coverage Affects Two Out of Four Attributes of Consumer Confidence

Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends

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