In spite of substantial and persistent economic slack, the United States experienced only a mild disinflation during the Great Recession and its aftermath. Consumer price inflation, measured by the core personal consumption expenditures price index, averaged 2 percent between 2003 and 2007 and only declined to an average annual rate of about 1.5 percent over the following eight years, a period that saw the deepest contraction in economic activity since the Great Depression, followed by an uneven and weak recovery. Among many economists, the absence of more pronounced deflationary pressures during this period has cast doubt on the empirical relevance of the Phillips curve-a central tenet of most standard macroeconomic models-which posits that a high level of resource underutilization should cause inflation to fall over time (Hall 2011;King and Watson 2012). NW, Washington, DC 20551 (e-mail: egon.zakrajsek@frb.gov). We thank Rudi Bachmann, Mark Bils, Marco Del Negro, Etienne Gagnon, Marc Giannoni, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Jim Kahn, Pete Klenow, Emi Nakamura, Joe Vavra, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions; we also benefited from comments from participants at numerous conferences and seminars. We are especially grateful to Kristen Reed, Ryan Ogden, and Rozi Ulics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for their invaluable help with this project and to Jonathan Weinhagen for sharing his expertise with the PPI data.