What Is the Future of the Atlantic Surfclam (Spisula solidissima) Fishery Under Climate‐Induced Warming on the Mid‐Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf: A Multidecadal Assessment

Abstract

The Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima supports a lucrative commercial fishery in the Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) worth roughly $30 million in revenue per year. Rapid climate change is expected to modify the geographic range of the Atlantic surfclam, with consequences for the surfclam fishery. This study evaluated fishery‐based indicators projected from 2020 through 2095 based on anticipated changes in the geographic range and biomass of the Atlantic surfclam, using a Spatially Explicit, agent‐based Fisheries and Economics Simulator (SEFES). Simulations generally showed a positive trend in Atlantic surfclam biomass throughout the next three‐quarters of the 21st century as the clam's range continues to shift offshore and northward along the continental shelf. A general decrease in fishing mortality rate is projected given the present fleet capacity, with a simultaneous increase in catch and landings per unit effort (LPUE), signaling future potential growth in the surfclam fishery. Regionally, forecasts show biomass expanding into deeper waters particularly off New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England starting in the early 2050s, whereas populations on Georges Bank and off Delmarva gradually decline. Trends in time spent fishing, catch, and LPUE parallel those of biomass in each region. These results can inform managers and business interests that rely on this fishery, as well as other users of the continental shelf, to provide a basis for the development of anticipatory management for the socio‐ecological and economic impacts that may result from future changes in the Atlantic surfclam range and carrying capacity consequent of climate change.