What is the probability of replicating a statistically significant effect?

Miller, Jeff

doi:10.3758/pbr.16.4.617

Cited by 81 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…This is unlikely to have been due to statistical power: in Experiment 3a, the effect size (Cohen's d) for the difference between acceleration and deceleration was 0.74, so that the power to detect this effect in the current experiment (even after the Bonferroni-adjusting the alpha levels to .017) was approximately 85% (Erdfelder, Faul, & Buchner, 1996). [This power calculation is based on the effect size observed in Experiment 3a (see e.g., Greenwald, Gonzalez, Harris, & Guthrie, 1996), although some authors have queried this approach (e.g., Miller, 2009) so caution regarding the exact power estimate may be appropriate. ]…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do changes in speed affect the perception of duration?

Matthews¹

2011

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Perfor

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Six experiments investigated how changes in stimulus speed influence subjective duration. Participants saw rotating or translating shapes in three conditions: constant speed, accelerating motion, and decelerating motion. The distance moved and average speed were the same in all three conditions. In temporal judgment tasks, the constant-speed objects seemed to last longer than the decelerating objects, which in turn seemed to last longer than the accelerating stimuli. In temporal reproduction tasks, the difference between accelerating and decelerating stimuli disappeared; furthermore, watching an accelerating shape lengthened the apparent duration of the subsequent (static) display. These results (a) suggest that temporal judgment and reproduction can dissociate for moving stimuli because the stimulus influences the apparent duration of the subsequent interval, and (b) constrain theories of time perception, including those which emphasize memory storage, those which emphasize the existence of a pacemakeraccumulator timing system, and those which emphasize the division of attention between temporal and non-temporal information processing.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do changes in speed affect the perception of duration?

Matthews¹

2011

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Perfor

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“…17 Given that efforts to replicate an initial finding usually involve a different clinical setting, a different patient selection and slightly different methods---the chance of replication after an original finding with a Po0.05 is often o50%. 18,19 Although these risks are not unique to biological psychiatry, it is particularly vulnerable to 'significance chasing' because the studies in this field generally tend to be underpowered, have small sample sizes, 20,21 measure multiple dimensions and use subjective outcomes. 22 This challenge of identifying reliable findings on which to base a clinical test strategy is highlighted by two examples: from a handful of articles in the 1970s, there are now over 12 000 articles on 'schizophrenia genetics', with much of this expansion coming in the last decade.…”

Section: Significance Chasing With Underpowered Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why has it taken so long for biological psychiatry to develop clinical tests and what to do about it?

2012

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“…This procedure is also called a direct replication (Schmidt, 2009). The odds that any given original empirical finding will replicate are inherently unpredictable (Miller, 2009;Miller & Schwarz, 2011). Researchers should hence conduct direct replications to ensure the reliability of newly published findings.…”

Section: Why Do Psychologists Neglect Replication Research?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rewarding Replications

Koole¹,

Lakens

2012

Perspect Psychol Sci

243

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Although replications are vital to scientific progress, psychologists rarely engage in systematic replication efforts. In this article, we consider psychologists' narrative approach to scientific publications as an underlying reason for this neglect and propose an incentive structure for replications within psychology. First, researchers need accessible outlets for publishing replications. To accomplish this, psychology journals could publish replication reports in files that are electronically linked to reports of the original research. Second, replications should get cited. This can be achieved by cociting replications along with original research reports. Third, replications should become a valued collaborative effort. This can be realized by incorporating replications in teaching programs and by stimulating adversarial collaborations. The proposed incentive structure for replications can be developed in a relatively simple and cost-effective manner. By promoting replications, this incentive structure may greatly enhance the dependability of psychology's knowledge base.

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What is the probability of replicating a statistically significant effect?

Cited by 81 publications

References 62 publications

How do changes in speed affect the perception of duration?

How do changes in speed affect the perception of duration?

Why has it taken so long for biological psychiatry to develop clinical tests and what to do about it?

Rewarding Replications

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