Objectives
To investigate whether anti-CCP2 positive at-risk individuals with MSK symptoms, but without clinical synovitis (CCP2+ at-risk), develop ultrasound (US) subclinical synovitis before inflammatory arthritis (IA), and if US subclinical synovitis can be predicted.
Methods
First, US scans of CCP2+ at-risk who developed IA (‘progressors’) were reviewed for subclinical synovitis prior to IA development. Patients in whom the pre-progression US scan was negative, but the scan was conducted >6 months before progression, were excluded. Subsequently, regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of US synovitis in CCP2+ at-risk without baseline US abnormalities, who had ≥1 longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset.
Results
US subclinical synovitis was detected in ≥ 1 scan in 75 of 97 ‘progressors’ (77.3%) (median time to IA development from first evidence of US synovitis: 26.5 weeks, IQR: 7–60), in whom ≥1 scan was available, excluding those with a negative scan >6 months from IA development (n = 38).
In 220 CCP2+ at-risk individuals, with normal baseline US scans, who had ≥1 longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset, US synovitis was detected in 69/220 (31.4%) (median time to first developing US synovitis: 56.4 weeks, IQR: 33.0–112.0). In the multivariable analysis, only anti-CCP3 antibodies were predictive for the development of US synovitis [OR 4.75 95%CI (1.97–11.46), p< 0.01].
Conclusions
In anti-CCP2+ at-risk, a stage of subclinical synovitis usually precedes the development of IA. Anti-CCP2+/CCP3+ individuals without clinical or US subclinical synovitis may represent the optimal ‘window of opportunity’ for intervention to prevent joint disease.