What makes people believe that their party won the election?

Abstract

This paper uses an original question to investigate voters' own evaluations of whether the party they voted for won or lost the election. We examine which aspect of the party's electoral performance has the strongest impact on voters' perceptions. The results reveal that supporters of the largest partythe party with most votes and seats in both Parliament and governmentalmost unanimously believe that their party won the election. But we find that some supporters of smaller parties also feel their party won, when and if their party gained votes and seats compared to the previous election. Moreover, we test whether it is the party's performance at the district or national level that matters most. We find that voters' judgments are shaped mostly by electoral performance at the national level, but having the local candidate elected in the district can partially compensate for a national defeat.

On the Subjectivity of the Experience of Victory: Who Are the Election Winners?

“…These results open up the possibility that not everybody who voted for a party that now finds itself in government feels like equal winners (see also Stiers, Daoust, & Blais, ). It is also possible that not everyone who supported a party that failed to make it into the government considers themselves losers of the elections.…”

“…In particular, we see that compared to opinion poll data, which are often subject to journalistic interpretation or media framing (e.g., Van der Meer, Hakhverdian, & Aaldering, ), previous election outcomes can provide voters with important objective information to be used in upcoming elections (Blais & Bodet, ). Thus, electoral gains and losses, that is, vote change since the previous election, should matter for supporters in perceiving whether or not their party has won (see also Delgado, ; Stiers et al, ). Specifically, supporters of parties that gained votes in the most recent election should be more likely to feel happy about the election outcome than those of parties that lost votes.…”

Voting and satisfaction with democracy in flexible-list PR

“…However, for other parties, voters consider that entering the governing coalition, as well as increasing their seat share compared to the previous election, is already a victory (Stiers, Daoust, and Blais 2018). In Table A8 in the appendix, we report the predicted values of change in satisfaction with democracy based on the regression models of Table 2.…”

“…We wish to determine whether voters who cast a preference vote for a candidate with a high preference score are as satisfied than voters who cast a preference vote for a candidate 13 The satisfaction with democracy of the electorate of the N-VA, which is the largest party and the one with the largest increase in seat share, decreases by -.4. Although the party is the big winner according to Stiers, Daoust, and Blais' (2018) criteria, the respondents did not know whether it would be part of the government when they answered the post-election survey. Because of its clear stance in favour of the independence of Flanders, the N-VA was considered by most other parties as a persona non grata (Verthé et al 2017).…”

Do people want a ‘fairer’ electoral system? An experimental study in four countries

“…The logic behind this baseline expectation is rather straightforward: the better the performance of the supported party, the more likely it is that its voters will feel that their party has won the election and the material and/or emotional ‘payoff’ associated with the experience of victory will translate into higher voter satisfaction for the system in general and specifically for electoral outcomes and the rules leading to that outcome (e.g., Stiers et al. ; Plescia )…”