2017
DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntx243
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What Proportion of People Who Try One Cigarette Become Daily Smokers? A Meta-Analysis of Representative Surveys

Abstract: The transition from trying the first cigarette through occasional to daily smoking usually implies that a recreational activity is turning into a compulsive need that has to be satisfied virtually continuously. The "conversion rate" from initial experimentation to daily smoking is thus a potentially important metric of smoking behavior, but estimates of it based on representative data are lacking. The present meta-analysis addressed this gap. Currently, about two-thirds of nonsmokers experimenting with cigaret… Show more

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Cited by 38 publications
(37 citation statements)
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“…Existing ECs can satisfy smokers and help them to stop smoking [13], but they seem to be remarkably unattractive to non-smokers. While non-smokers who try cigarettes have a more than 50% chance of becoming daily smokers [14], non-smokers who try ECs almost never progress to weekly, let alone daily, use [15,16]. There is now a concern that use of Juul may be changing this picture [17].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Existing ECs can satisfy smokers and help them to stop smoking [13], but they seem to be remarkably unattractive to non-smokers. While non-smokers who try cigarettes have a more than 50% chance of becoming daily smokers [14], non-smokers who try ECs almost never progress to weekly, let alone daily, use [15,16]. There is now a concern that use of Juul may be changing this picture [17].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A recent meta-analysis of nationally representative surveys of adults, which found that among those who had ever tried a cigarette, more than two-thirds (68.9%) progressed to daily smoking, highlighted the importance of reducing experimentation in youth. 6 When asked for their views, marketing experts suggested that including warnings on cigarettes would ruin the image of smoking, particularly for young people. 7 However, whether this would reduce experimentation is not known, as research in this area is at a nascent stage.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This may be related to age at 1 st smoking by modulating cognitive dimensions involved in addictive processes such as procedural learning through (α7) 5 nAChRs [41,42] and impulsivity through 5-HT3Rs [43]. The phenotype 'age at 1 st smoke' is of utmost relevance since up to 69% adolescents who initiate smoking will be daily smokers at some point [44].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%