What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

Abstract

This commentary refers to the retrospective review by Rowland and Spaniol in Futures and Foresight Science (2021), which provides interesting insights into Kees van der Heijden's character and work 25 years after his famous book Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation was first published. The commentator draws on his own personal experience of Kees' work and book, including a seminar with him at the University of Oxford in 2011, as well as applying the book's fundamentals in his own research and advisory work over the past ten years.

Robust action and scenarios: A rejoinder

“…In addition to emotions, scenario development also depends on luck. This is explored by von der Gracht (2021) in his commentary, “What's luck got to do with it?” Years prior, Schwartz and Ogilvy (1998, p. 73) wrote, after some facilitation, “the group will be able to see several different scenarios in sufficient detail so that it's possible to draw out preliminary implications of each scenario” and “if you're lucky, some strategic implications of the set of scenarios taken as a whole.” Returning to von der Gracht (2021, p. 1), his interpretation is that successful scenario planning requires that the right client joins with the right facilitator to assess the right information at the right time to “unleash the magic” of van der Heijden's (2005, p. xv) “eureka moment of invention.” Wack (1985, p. 141) referred to this as the “aha” moment of clarity of “strategic insights beyond the mind's previous reach” and is “the real challenge of scenario analysis,” occurring “when your message reaches the microcosms of decision makers, obliges them to question their assumptions about how their business world works, and leads them to change and reorganize their inner models of reality.” Yet this moment requires more: In another conversation with Peter Schwartz in the introduction to their edited book, Scenarios for Succes s (Sharpe & van der Heijden, 2008, pp. 15–16), Schwartz explains that “even in a great ‘Aha!’ moment you may see a new possibility,” but asks, “have you internalized it sufficiently to act upon it?” because, according to Schwartz, “this is one of the ways scenarios often fail.”…”

“…It especially depends upon the client if scenario planning is not yet embedded in their country of operation, as Schwarz (2021, p. 2) experienced firsthand. It even depends on, von der Gracht (2021, p. 2) notes, “getting the ‘right’ client” in the first place, that is, the type of client that “asks the right questions and allows for original, unconventional scenarios.”…”

“…Ramírez (2021, p. 2) reflected on the idea of expanding the capacity of the client by facilitating their understanding of their business (idea) from the perspective of the future; “in the end what matters to produce useful value is seeing the world not from the future of the business as ‘anyone’ might see it, but primarily from the intended user's (client's) point of view.” This is because, as von der Gracht (2021, p. 2) explains, “determining what is attractive and exciting is not up to the scenario planner.” The shift was subtle, but the move to stop making scenarios for a client and begin coproducing scenarios reflects not the delivery of a product but the provision of a service associated with structured, facilitated organizational learning. Or, more colorfully and with greater emphasis on the linguistic aspects of strategic conversations, von der Gracht (2021, p. 3) frames the issue as a transference of learning to the client: “It is not solely a matter of the futurist mastering his mother tongue better than others. It is also about the fact that they are able to transform the linguistic practices of their recipients in a didactically clever and transfer‐safe way, without getting all preachy about it.” The book Scenarios , as many commentators noted, had become a go‐to resource not merely for interested clients, but also for facilitators to use and re‐use.…”

“…After all, scenarios have diverse audiences, and, thus, facilitators like Kees, and many of those who provided commentaries, operate as brokers and translators between many different worlds. With regard to conversations about the process of scenario development, von der Gracht (2021, p. 2) is instructive: “When I, as a professional futurist, say ‘scenario planning,’ the client's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) automatically understands it to mean financial mathematical modeling, the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) exciting storytelling on future market potential, the CEO a well‐developed strategy, and the Chief Risk Officer a stress test.” Similarly, Georgi‐Kröhl (2021) recognizes the essential need for multivocality in start‐up contexts like incubators and accelerators, where strategic conversations simultaneously encompass investors, coaches, mentors, founders, and other stakeholders.…”

“…But the marker did not move for a very long time. That was Kees's way of telling them to ‘get down to business; cut the crap; what's at the core of all this?’ For Bradfield (2021, p. 2), among many others, Kees was a mentor: “I joined Strathclyde as a ‘research fellow’ with the objective of learning all about scenario planning by working with Kees as his apprentice scenario planner and undertaking a doctorate under his supervision.” As Ramírez noted in an interview, Kees was an ardent listener, a sense that many shared including von der Gracht (2021, p. 1) who wrote “I remembered our hours in the seminar room when Kees answered the dozens of questions that we asked him.” Lang (2021: 2) recalls Kees's programmatic efforts to establish scenario planning in a number of university settings, for example, at “Curtin University in Perth where he had previously mentored Jo Barker to establish the Scenario Planning and Research Unit,” and later at the “University of Oxford and Templeton College as an Associate Fellow where he co‐established the executive Oxford Scenarios Programme,” among other places. To Schoemaker (2021, p. 3), Kees was a copresenter and coauthor, a practical scholar with whom we “share curiosity, learning, tolerance, and humility in face of the unknown.”…”