What’s the problem in adaptation pathways planning? The potential of a diagnostic problem-structuring approach

Bosomworth, Karyn; Leith, Peat; Harwood, Andrew; Wallis, Phillip

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2017.06.007

Cited by 116 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…With this local information in combination with the typology of pathways, local adaptation pathways can be designed. For successful implementation, pathways need to be complemented by good, continuous governance [16,58,59], where all stakeholders work towards the overall management goal, rather than their own narrow objectives.…”

Section: Towards Local Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…So far, adoption of adaptation pathways to sea-level rise includes the UK Thames Estuary 2100 plan [9], the Dutch Delta Program in the Rhine-Meuse delta [14], the Bangladesh Delta Plan, the township of Lakes Entrance in Australia [10] and the Hutt river in New Zealand [15]. In spite of their proven potential to support decision making under uncertainty, application of adaptation pathways remains uncommon [15,16]. One reason for this may be the challenge of the complexity of exploring and evaluating the wide range alternative pathways into the medium and long-term future, rather than the short-term where coastal management decisions are often focused.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise

Haasnoot

Brown

Scussolini

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

132

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Adaptation to coastal flood risk is hampered by high uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise. Subsequently, adaptation decisions carry strong risks of under-or over-investment, and could lead to costly retrofitting or unnecessary high margins. To better allocate resources timely and effectively, and achieve long-term sustainability, planners could utilise adaptation pathways, revealing the path-dependencies of adaptation options. This helps to identify low-regret short-term decisions that preserve options in an uncertain future, while monitoring to detect signals to adapt. A major barrier to the application of adaptation pathways is limited experience. To facilitate this, here we generalize this pathways approach for six common coastal archetypes, resulting in generic pathways suitable to be adjusted to local conditions. This provides a much richer analysis of coastal adaptation than provided by any previous analysis, by assessing the solution space and options over time for a variety of coastal regions. Based on this analysis, we find that the number of adaptation options declines while sea-level rises. For some archetypes, it becomes clear that long-term thinking is needed now, about if, how and when to move to transformative options, such as planned retreat, which may presently not be considered or acceptable. Our analysis further shows that coastal adaptation needs to start earlier than anticipated, especially given time required for local debate and choice and to implement measures.

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Section: Towards Local Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise

Haasnoot

Brown

Scussolini

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

132

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Rather than suggesting one approach may be better than another, the diversity of approaches reflects arguments that the differential roles science/research can or might be positioned to play in any adaptation planning exercise, is influenced by how the problem is structured or framed (Leith et al 2018). Further to this, approaches such as Bosomworth et al (2017) 'problem-structuring approach', Scholsberg's (2012) 'climate justice and capabilities framework' and the 'Pathways to Sustainability' concept proposed by Leach et al (2010) all explicitly start with understanding and engaging with different framings, power, etc, in the design and conduct of adaptation planning. There may well be potential in exploring application of a hybrid approach between these and the AP concepts to enable adaptation planning (and action) that effectively and justly engages with the uncertainties and ambiguities of adaptation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Bosomworth

Gaillard

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change adaptation planning demands decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity. Adaptive Pathways (AP) planning is receiving increased attention as a method to guide adaptation planning in the face of uncertainties. The approach has been most extensively developed and applied in large, well-funded contexts such as the Thames Barrier and Dutch Delta program. However, the development of AP planning has focused much less on the parallel need for engaging with the challenge of ambiguity-that there are diverse, sometimes contending, knowledges, values, and stakes involved. A more nascent body of work has been exploring ways of engaging with both the uncertainties and ambiguities of adaptation through various participatory approaches to AP planning. This paper sought to synthesise insights from this emerging work. Examining the peer-reviewed and grey literature identified eight cases from four countries across five different policy issues that provided details of how they approached diverse participation. Analysis of this small suite of cases provided some key insights for those seeking to use participatory approaches to AP planning to engage with the inherent uncertainties and (arguably necessary) ambiguities of adaptation. The paper concludes with a call for greater publication of details regarding how participatory approaches to methods such as AP planning have been undertaken not just what was undertaken.

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“…Unlike TE2100, where there is a single, dominant driver (i.e., sea level change), wetland systems in the MDB must be adaptively managed in the context of multiple pressures. Diagnostic problem‐structuring methods can help to explore different framings of the issues around competing goals, values and scientific uncertainties (e.g., Bosomworth, Leith, Harwood, & Wallis, ).…”

Section: A Strategic Adaptive Management Approach For the Mdbmentioning

confidence: 99%

Management pathways for the floodplain wetlands of the southern Murray–Darling Basin: Lessons from history

Gell

Reid

Wilby

2019

River Research & Apps

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The condition of floodplain wetlands of the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) reflects the combined effects of climate variability, river regulation, vegetation clearance, and the impacts of human settlement and industry. Today, these systems are degraded, in large part due to changes in the hydroecology of waterways arising from water diversion and abstraction to sustain irrigated agriculture. The MDB Plan directs substantial investment towards the restoration of ecosystems largely via the buy‐back of water allocations, under a cap‐and‐trade system, for use as environmental flows. This region is projected to receive less winter rainfall and run‐off, which could exacerbate the impact of water diversions. Long‐term climate records suggest a higher level of resilience to drying than may be inferred from modern studies. Further, palaeoecological records of change reveal that many wetlands that are perennial today were once naturally seasonal or intermittent, and that much wetland degradation predates regulation and can be attributed to declines in water quality, rather than quantity. A mix of approaches to rehabilitate this long‐degraded system, planned and implemented over an extended period, may meet the demands of the Water Act of 2007, but also support the regional economy. An adaptive management approach offers a framework within which to map system vulnerabilities, characterize climate pressures, identify adaptation options, and monitor outcomes along a pathway to a sustainable future. Early lessons show the extent to which such a deliberative framework can assist water reform under changing socio‐economic priorities and external hydroclimatic pressures.

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What’s the problem in adaptation pathways planning? The potential of a diagnostic problem-structuring approach

Cited by 116 publications

References 52 publications

Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise

Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise

Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Management pathways for the floodplain wetlands of the southern Murray–Darling Basin: Lessons from history

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