What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries

Boschen, John F.; Weise, Charles L.

doi:10.1353/mcb.2003.0017

Cited by 32 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Following Boschen and Weise (2003), we define the start date for an inflation episode as the year following the year in which the trough took place. As can be seen from Figure 1, which depicts inflation starts, 17 out of the 24 inflation starts occurred before 1990.…”

Section: Definition Of Inflation Episodes and Inflation Startsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our approach to computing the contributions differs slightly from that of Boschen and Weise (2003) since we divide the contribution of each variable by the absolute value of the total contribution of variables considered by the index. The use of the absolute value operator in the denominator of (2) enables us to obtain the percentage contributions with correct signs since the total contribution to the index can take negative values.…”

Section: A Quick Glance At Inflation Startsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the definition of an inflation episode, we require a 1 percent rise from trough to peak thoughBoschen and Weise (2003) employ a 2 percent threshold for the OECD countries. The rationale behind our choice of 1 percent rise is that EMEs included in this paper have experienced long lasting periods of high inflation and, as a result, a lower threshold-1 percent as opposed to 2 percent-seems to be more appropriate in capturing the periods of sustained increase in inflation.…”

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confidence: 99%

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What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

Domaç

Yücel

2005

Rev. World Econ.

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Section: Definition Of Inflation Episodes and Inflation Startsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Quick Glance At Inflation Startsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

Domaç

Yücel

2005

Rev. World Econ.

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“…A quick glance at the literature points to two different 2 Our approach is very similar to a recent study by Boschen and Weise (2003), which focuses on the OECD countries. This study includes the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Venezuela.…”

Section: Review Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…To this end, we rely on Ball (1994) and Boschen and Weise (2003) and construct the trend inflation series by calculating the nine-quarter moving average of the quarterly consumer price inflation rate. Next, we turn to the determination of trough and peak dates of inflation, which are identified as dates at which trend inflation is lower (higher) than in the preceding and succeeding four quarters.…”

Section: Definition Of Inflation Episodes and Inflation Startsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

Domaç

Yücel

2004

Policy Research Working Papers

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Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced a noticeable decline in inflation since the mid-1990s. Whether this stable price environment in EMEs is likely to endure and what kind of policies need to be followed to ensure price stability, however, still continue to be questions of considerable policy relevance. This study aims at investigating the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 EMEs between 1980 and 2001. The paper employs pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. The findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts.JEL classification: E31; E58.

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What type of central banker dampens the political business cycle? The case of Africa

Strong

2023

Int. J Fin Econ

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This article investigates the extent to which central bank independence can help to reduce political business cycles in Africa. Like previous studies, we find evidence of political cycles in our sample of 34 African countries for the period 1980–2018, but our findings show that politicians' ability to manipulate both fiscal and monetary policy depends on the degree of alliance between the fiscal authority and the monetary authority. Indeed, our analysis reveals that the political business cycle worsens when the central banker is an ally whereas a non‐ally central banker is associated with a decrease in the ability of the incumbent government to induce opportunistic political cycles, and this result holds, regardless of whether an African country is classified as a democracy or a dictatorship. In addition to that, despite the theoretical argument that political business cycles are unlikely to exist in dictatorships, we find evidence that both political budget and monetary cycles are prevalent in African dictatorships.

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What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries

Cited by 32 publications

References 29 publications

What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?

What type of central banker dampens the political business cycle? The case of Africa

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