“What the weather will do” – results of a survey  on impact-oriented and impact-based  warnings in European NMHSs

Kaltenberger, Rainer; Schaffhauser, Andreas; Staudinger, Michael

doi:10.5194/asr-17-29-2020

Cited by 39 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…It is worth noting that the negative effect of past behavior on the intention, given the water depth perception, may be an indication that drivers that eventually crossed the inundated area were left with a negative impression, while drivers that did not cross it may not anticipate a negative experience. The practical implication of this finding is very strong, as it reinforces the need for impact-based warnings that inform about the risks and the expected negative experiences [52].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

The Role of Water Depth Perception in Shaping Car Drivers’ Intention to Enter Floodwaters: Experimental Evidence

et al. 2021

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Floods are one of the most lethal natural hazards. Recent studies show that in a large percentage of flood-related fatalities, victims engage in risk-taking behavior by getting deliberately in contact with floodwaters. This study integrates behavioral psychology and situational environmental factors with the aim to examine why individuals undertake such risky behavior. In particular, we draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to link water depth perception with the intention of car drivers to enter floodwaters. The hypotheses on which the study was based were that the depth of the water adversely affects the driver’s intention to enter floodwaters, and that this effect is mediated by a behavior-favorable attitude, a behavior-favorable subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control. Further, to understand the conditions under which this process works, the moderating role of past behavior in the above relationships is also examined. Results from an experimental study (n = 1940) show that water depth perception affects intention. Attitude, perceived behavioral control, and normative beliefs operate as the underlying psychological mechanism that leads to the mitigation of intention in higher water depth situations. Interestingly, past risk-taking behavior is found to be a significant condition under which this process works, by mostly affecting individuals’ attitudes. Mediation and moderated mediation analyses were conducted to estimate causal relationships. The findings provide evidence of the significant interaction that environmental, psychological, and precedent behavioral factors have on behavioral intentions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

The Role of Water Depth Perception in Shaping Car Drivers’ Intention to Enter Floodwaters: Experimental Evidence

et al. 2021

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“…wind, water ingress or treefall) impedes the derivation of accurate vulnerability relations. If the cause of the damage cannot be identified, impact forecast verification is limited (Richter et al 2019;Kaltenberger, Schaffhauser & Staudinger 2020).…”

Section: Current Challenges In Quantitative Impact Modelling and Forementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite its utility, impact forecasting is a relatively new field of modelling and efforts towards this goal vary widely. For example, while many European meteorological and hydrological services are currently transitioning to impact-based criteria from fixed or climatology-based hazard thresholds, almost 70 per cent of these do not run impact models for the production of impact-based warnings (Kaltenberger, Schaffhauser & Staudinger 2020). The same study notes that this could be due to issues relating to cost, a lack of impact data and verification, which makes it difficult to assess the performance of impact models under development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the impacts of severe weather

Schroeter

Richter

Arthur

et al. 2021

AJEM

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National meteorological and hydrological services provide severe weather warning information to inform decision-making by emergency management organisations. Such information also helps communities to take defensive and mitigating actions prior to and during severe weather events. Globally, warning information issued by meteorological and hydrological services varies widely. This can range from solely hazard-based to impact-based forecasting encompassing the exposure and vulnerability of communities to severe weather. The most advanced of these systems explicitly and quantitatively model the impacts of hazards on affected assets or infrastructure such as vehicle traffic or housing. Incorporating impact information into severe weather warnings contextualises and personalises the warning information, increasing the likelihood that individuals and communities will take preparatory action. However, providing useful and detailed impact information remains a challenge. This paper reviews a selection of current severe weather warnings and impact forecasting capabilities globally and highlights uncertainties that limit the forecasting and modelling of multi-hazard events.

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“…Most NHMS in Europe plan to incorporate impact information into their warning systems. The practical side of implementing IbW was studied in 32 European NHMS, where the NHMS self‐assessed their views and their status with regards to IbW (Kaltenberger et al, 2020). Most NHMS plan to transition towards IbW over the next 5 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland

Röösli

Appenzeller

Bresch

2021

Meteorological Applications

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National meteorological and hydrological services issue warnings for severe weather events, typically based on stakeholder‐agreed fixed thresholds of meteorological parameters such as wind speeds or precipitation amounts. Yet societal decisions on preventive actions depend on the expected impacts of the weather event. In order to better inform such preventive actions, meteorological services are currently working towards including expected impacts into their warnings. We develop an open‐source impact forecasting system for building damage due to winter windstorms in Switzerland. It combines a numerical ensemble weather prediction model with exposure and vulnerability data. This system forecasts expected building damage in Swiss Francs with a 2‐day lead time on a 500‐m grid or aggregated to administrative regions. We compare the forecasted building damage with insurance claims in the canton of Zurich. The uncertainty of the impact forecasts is large. For the majority of days with severe winter windstorm damage, the mean forecasted damage was in the right order of magnitude, with one missed event and one false alarm. For thunderstorms and foehn storms, the rate of missed events and false alarms is much higher, most likely related to the limited meteorological forecast skill. Such impact forecasts can inform decision makers on preventive actions, such as allocating emergency response and other assets. Additionally, impact forecasts could also help communicating the severity of the upcoming event to the general public as well as indirectly help meteorological forecasters with taking warning decisions.

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“What the weather will do” – results of a survey on impact-oriented and impact-based warnings in European NMHSs

Cited by 39 publications

References 5 publications

The Role of Water Depth Perception in Shaping Car Drivers’ Intention to Enter Floodwaters: Experimental Evidence

The Role of Water Depth Perception in Shaping Car Drivers’ Intention to Enter Floodwaters: Experimental Evidence

Forecasting the impacts of severe weather

Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland

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