2006
DOI: 10.1002/smj.555
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What to do next? The case for non‐predictive strategy

Abstract: Two prescriptions dominate the topic of what firms should do next in uncertain situations: planning approaches and adaptive approaches. These differ primarily on the appropriate role of prediction in the decision process. Prediction is a central issue in strategy making owing to the presumption that what can be predicted can be controlled. In this paper we argue for the independence of prediction and control. This implies that the pursuit of successful outcomes can occur through control‐oriented approaches tha… Show more

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Cited by 521 publications
(567 citation statements)
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References 72 publications
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“…Their conceptualizations reflect an intersubjective epistemology of entrepreneurship. Wiltbank, Dew, Read, and Sarasvathy [27] extended these ideas to the strategy domain, and write convincingly about the nature of non-predictive strategy, wherein they pose the question: "How can a firm know what to do next?" (p. 981) This is rather straightforward when the situation is predictable (i.e., "try harder to forecast better").…”
Section: Relating Entrepreneurship As Judgment To Entrepreneurship Asmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Their conceptualizations reflect an intersubjective epistemology of entrepreneurship. Wiltbank, Dew, Read, and Sarasvathy [27] extended these ideas to the strategy domain, and write convincingly about the nature of non-predictive strategy, wherein they pose the question: "How can a firm know what to do next?" (p. 981) This is rather straightforward when the situation is predictable (i.e., "try harder to forecast better").…”
Section: Relating Entrepreneurship As Judgment To Entrepreneurship Asmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, decision making without likelihood judgment, or, put differently, decision making under conditions of Knightean uncertainty represents a serious challenge to most entrepreneurs and managers of new firms, especially in nascent industries. Based on the work of Brews and Hunt [28], Wiltbank, Dew, Read, and Sarasvathy [27] delineate two fundamental ways to address this question: entrepreneurs and managers should either "try harder to predict better" (the planning school of strategy), or they should "move faster to adapt better" (the learning school of strategy). However, these prescriptions merely seek to position the organization in a given environment.…”
Section: Relating Entrepreneurship As Judgment To Entrepreneurship Asmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…In particular, two prominent schools of thought provide a distinct theoretical foundation that explain the outcomes of business planning on firm performance. These are the planning school and the learning school [19,20].…”
Section: Business Plan and Firms' Performances: Two Different Approachesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Интерес к изучению эффектуации и каузации проявляется не только в области предпринимательства, но и в работах по маркетингу, инновациям, стратегическому менеджменту и финан сам (см., напр. : [Berglund, 2007;Fish er, 2012;Mort, Weerawardena, Liesch, 2012;Read, Sarasvathy, 2005;Wiltbank et al, 2006]). Несмотря на то что эмпирических под-тверждений связи эффектуации/каузации с результатами деятельности фирм пока немного, все они доказывают наличие по-ложительной связи между обеими логи-ками принятия решений и результатами деятельности новых фирм [Cai et al, 2017;Laskovaia, Shi ro kova, Morris, 2017;Read, Song, Smit, 2009;Smolka et al, 2016] и инновационных проектов [Brettel et al, 2012].…”
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