What Turkey’s earthquake tells us about the science of seismic forecasting

Hall, Shannon

doi:10.1038/d41586-023-00685-y

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…However, it has been challenging for seismologists to rigorously retrieve rupture complexity that should be recorded in rich waveform datasets, because of the necessity of assumptions involving the fault geometry and rupture direction, which are often not necessarily required by the data itself and sometimes bias the interpretation of the earthquake source process. The methodological difficulties in analyzing geometrically complex earthquakes are a huge obstacle in our understanding of earthquake source physics, but also hinder rapid and robust response, especially for destructive events like the 2023 SE Türkiye and Syria earthquake sequence, and assessing of future earthquake (e.g., aftershock) hazard in the short‐to‐medium term (e.g., Dal Zilio & Ampuero, 2023; Hall, 2023; Hussain et al., 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐Scale Rupture Growth With Alternating Directions in a Complex Fault Network During the 2023 South‐Eastern Türkiye and Syria Earthquake Doublet

Okuwaki

Yagi

Taymaz³

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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A devastating doublet of earthquakes with moment magnitude MW 7.9 and MW 7.6 earthquakes contiguously occurred in SE Türkiye near the NW border of Syria. Here we perform a potency‐density tensor inversion to simultaneously estimate rupture evolution and fault geometry for the doublet. We find the initial MW 7.9 earthquake involved discrete episodes of supershear rupture and back‐rupture propagation, and was triggered by initial rupture along a bifurcated splay of the East Anatolian Fault. The second MW 7.6 event was triggered by the earlier MW 7.9 event, and it involved more extensive supershear rupture along a favorably curved fault, and was likely stopped by geometric barriers at the fault ends. Our results highlight the multi‐scale cascading rupture growth across the complex fault network that affects the diverse rupture geometries of the 2023 Türkiye earthquake doublet, contributing to the strong ground shaking and associated devastation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐Scale Rupture Growth With Alternating Directions in a Complex Fault Network During the 2023 South‐Eastern Türkiye and Syria Earthquake Doublet

Okuwaki

Yagi

Taymaz³

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…It was found that the magnitude of the first event (with one standard error of the magnitude estimation) is 7.95 ± 0.013. Results about the tectonic setting, the seismicity and its temporal evolution as well as the seismic moment release rate in the region have been presented in [27], whereas various issues about seismic forecasting are discussed in [28].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Kahramanmaraş—Gaziantep, Türkiye Mw 7.8 Earthquake on 6 February 2023: Strong Ground Motion and Building Response Estimations

Papazafeiropoulos

Plevris

2023

Buildings

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The effects on structures of the earthquake with the magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale (moment magnitude scale) that took place in Pazarcık, Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye at 04:17 a.m. local time (01:17 UTC) on 6 February 2023, are investigated by processing suitable seismic records using the open-source software OpenSeismoMatlab. The earthquake had a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (Extreme) and it was followed by a Mw 7.5 earthquake nine hours later, centered 95 km to the north–northeast from the first. Peak and cumulative seismic measures as well as elastic response spectra, constant ductility (or isoductile) response spectra, and incremental dynamic analysis curves were calculated for two representative earthquake records of the main event. Furthermore, the acceleration response spectra of a large set of records were compared to the acceleration design spectrum of the Turkish seismic code. Based on the study, it is concluded that the structures were overloaded far beyond their normal design levels. This, in combination with considerable vertical seismic components, was a contributing factor towards the collapse of many buildings in the region. Modifications of the Turkish seismic code are required so that higher spectral acceleration values can be prescribed, especially in earthquake-prone regions.

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“…A major earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6, 2023, has created a humanitarian crisis 1 (Hall, 2023). As of March 4, 2023, approximately one month after the earthquake, the death toll has reached at least 45,000 in Turkey and 6,000 in Syria, for a total of 51,000.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

For establishment of the healthcare information booklet after Turkey-Syrian earthquake based on the past disaster

Okuyama

Seto

Fukuda

et al. 2023

Preprint

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After a natural disaster, it is important to maintain the health of the victims, but after the Turkey-Syria earthquake, this information has not yet been provided. Tohoku University has compiled information on maintaining health care after the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 into a booklet, which is available to the public. The purpose of this study is to investigate user satisfaction with this booklet. A total of 505 organizations participated in this study by completing questionnaires and evaluating the booklet. Quantitative responses were analyzed and coded by theme. Open-ended responses indicated that it was difficult for the general public to understand the data in the booklet. This study shows the need to keep in mind the ease of understanding for the general public when providing information on post-disaster care. We hope that this study will lead to better health care information for the victims of the Turkey-Syria earthquake.

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What Turkey’s earthquake tells us about the science of seismic forecasting

Cited by 18 publications

References 8 publications

Multi‐Scale Rupture Growth With Alternating Directions in a Complex Fault Network During the 2023 South‐Eastern Türkiye and Syria Earthquake Doublet

Multi‐Scale Rupture Growth With Alternating Directions in a Complex Fault Network During the 2023 South‐Eastern Türkiye and Syria Earthquake Doublet

Kahramanmaraş—Gaziantep, Türkiye Mw 7.8 Earthquake on 6 February 2023: Strong Ground Motion and Building Response Estimations

For establishment of the healthcare information booklet after Turkey-Syrian earthquake based on the past disaster

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