What we know about covid-19 reinfection so far

Stokel-Walker, Chris

doi:10.1136/bmj.n99

Cited by 62 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“… 30 31 The reported re-infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 remain low within six months, and a lack of immune decay in this timeframe is also apparent. 29 32 In our study, we assumed no clinically relevant immune decay within 180 days for either the single or double dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines. Although uncertainty about immune decay exists, especially in a single dose, the current data would suggest limited decay in six months, the timeframe used in our study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study

Romero-Brufau

Chopra

Ryu

et al. 2021

BMJ

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Objective To estimate population health outcomes with delayed second dose versus standard schedule of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination. Design Simulation agent based modeling study. Setting Simulated population based on real world US county. Participants The simulation included 100 000 agents, with a representative distribution of demographics and occupations. Networks of contacts were established to simulate potentially infectious interactions though occupation, household, and random interactions. Interventions Simulation of standard covid-19 vaccination versus delayed second dose vaccination prioritizing the first dose. The simulation runs were replicated 10 times. Sensitivity analyses included first dose vaccine efficacy of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% after day 12 post-vaccination; vaccination rate of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 1% of population per day; assuming the vaccine prevents only symptoms but not asymptomatic spread (that is, non-sterilizing vaccine); and an alternative vaccination strategy that implements delayed second dose for people under 65 years of age, but not until all those above this age have been vaccinated. Main outcome measures Cumulative covid-19 mortality, cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections, and cumulative hospital admissions due to covid-19 over 180 days. Results Over all simulation replications, the median cumulative mortality per 100 000 for standard dosing versus delayed second dose was 226 v 179, 233 v 207, and 235 v 236 for 90%, 80%, and 70% first dose efficacy, respectively. The delayed second dose strategy was optimal for vaccine efficacies at or above 80% and vaccination rates at or below 0.3% of the population per day, under both sterilizing and non-sterilizing vaccine assumptions, resulting in absolute cumulative mortality reductions between 26 and 47 per 100 000. The delayed second dose strategy for people under 65 performed consistently well under all vaccination rates tested. Conclusions A delayed second dose vaccination strategy, at least for people aged under 65, could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study

Romero-Brufau

Chopra

Ryu

et al. 2021

BMJ

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“…Since the beginning of the pandemic, concerns on the possibility of reinfection have been raised. However, detection of reinfection is challenging and so far few reinfection cases caused by phylogenetically distinct lineages have been described 5 , suggesting that reinfection is a rare event. More recently, the emergence of new variants of concern (VOC), such as B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (South Africa) and P.1 (Brazil) that rapidly spread and may escape from neutralizing antibodies 6 , 7 complicates matters further.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection caused by the P.1 lineage in Araraquara city, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Romano

Félix

et al. 2021

Rev. Inst. Med. trop. S. Paulo

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“…COVID-19 reinfections appear to be rare with very few cases confirmed by wholegenome sequencing reported globally to date [17]. Recently, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as the P.1 and the B.1.351, harboring a mutational repertoire within the Spike gene has raised concerns with regard to how this genetic variability may shape and modulate tissue tropism and potentially preclude the binding of neutralizing antibodies leading to a potential risk for reinfections, as recently reported [16][17][18][19]. Additionally, in a recent report, the immune plasma of COVID-19 convalescent blood donors had 6-fold less neutralizing capacity against the P.1 than against the B-lineage.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phylogenomic Evidence of Reinfection and Persistence of SARS-CoV-2: First Report from Colombia

et al. 2021

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The continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the emergence of novel variants have raised concerns about possible reinfection events and potential changes in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics. Utilizing Oxford Nanopore technologies, we sequenced paired samples of three patients with positive RT-PCR results in a 1–2-month window period, and subsequent phylogenetics and genetic polymorphism analysis of these genomes was performed. Herein, we report, for the first time, genomic evidence of one case of reinfection in Colombia, exhibiting different SARS-CoV-2 lineage classifications between samples (B.1 and B.1.1.269). Furthermore, we report two cases of possible viral persistence, highlighting the importance of deepening our understanding on the evolutionary intra-host traits of this virus throughout different timeframes of disease progression. These results emphasize the relevance of genomic surveillance as a tool for understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and how this may translate effectively to future control and mitigations efforts, such as the national vaccination program.

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What we know about covid-19 reinfection so far

Abstract: With most coronaviruses, recovery confers a degree of immunity to reinfection. But a small number of patients have caught covid-19 for a second time. Chris Stokel-Walker looks at what we know and how worried we should be

Cited by 62 publications

References 4 publications

Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study

Public health impact of delaying second dose of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccine: simulation agent based modeling study

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection caused by the P.1 lineage in Araraquara city, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Phylogenomic Evidence of Reinfection and Persistence of SARS-CoV-2: First Report from Colombia

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